Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–2 magnitude 6.5+ events per week based on long-term USGS records of plate-boundary activity. No active aftershock sequences, foreshock swarms, or unusual clustering appear in current monitoring data, keeping the near-term rate aligned with climatological norms. The tight spread between zero (43%) and one (35%) reflects this baseline variability plus the inherent randomness of rupture timing on major faults. Traders weigh the low but non-zero chance of two events against the typical absence of such coincidences in any single seven-day window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie viele Erdbeben vom 17. bis 23. August mit 6,5 oder mehr?
0 43%
1 35%
2 19%
3 7%
0
43%
1
35%
2
19%
3
7%
4
4%
5
3%
>5
1%
0 43%
1 35%
2 19%
3 7%
0
43%
1
35%
2
19%
3
7%
4
4%
5
3%
>5
1%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–2 magnitude 6.5+ events per week based on long-term USGS records of plate-boundary activity. No active aftershock sequences, foreshock swarms, or unusual clustering appear in current monitoring data, keeping the near-term rate aligned with climatological norms. The tight spread between zero (43%) and one (35%) reflects this baseline variability plus the inherent randomness of rupture timing on major faults. Traders weigh the low but non-zero chance of two events against the typical absence of such coincidences in any single seven-day window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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