Global seismicity typically produces 8–10 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes per week according to USGS catalogs, with the August 17–23 window carrying added uncertainty from normal week-to-week variance and potential aftershock sequences along major subduction zones. Recent early-August activity has remained near baseline, featuring isolated events such as the M5.5 near Egypt and others in Indonesia without generating widespread aftershock swarms that would elevate counts. Traders assign nearly equal weight to ≤6 and >13 outcomes because short-term fluctuations depend on whether quiet periods persist or new clusters emerge in the Pacific Ring of Fire or other tectonically active regions. USGS monitoring provides the authoritative count for resolution, emphasizing that no strong forecast signals currently favor one tail of the distribution over the other.