Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no major volcanic eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, with "No" at 91.5% implied probability, driven by the rarity of such colossal events—ejecting at least 10 cubic kilometers of tephra and occurring only several times per century, as seen last with Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and debatably Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai in 2022. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports through May 2026 confirm 47 ongoing eruptions worldwide, all low VEI (≤4), with no elevated unrest at capable systems like Yellowstone (NORMAL/GREEN alert) or Iwo Jima. Key evidence includes stable seismic, deformation, and gas data absent precursors like rapid inflation or intense swarms typically preceding VEI 6 blasts. Realistic challenges include unforeseen caldera pressurization or swarm activity at monitored sites like Chiles-Cerro Negro, prompting rapid odds shifts; watch USGS weekly updates for new seismic indicators.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGroßer Vulkanausbruch (vei ≥6) im Jahr 2026?
Großer Vulkanausbruch (vei ≥6) im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$80,316 Vol.
$80,316 Vol.
31. März 2027
Ja
$80,316 Vol.
$80,316 Vol.
31. März 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no major volcanic eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, with "No" at 91.5% implied probability, driven by the rarity of such colossal events—ejecting at least 10 cubic kilometers of tephra and occurring only several times per century, as seen last with Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and debatably Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai in 2022. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports through May 2026 confirm 47 ongoing eruptions worldwide, all low VEI (≤4), with no elevated unrest at capable systems like Yellowstone (NORMAL/GREEN alert) or Iwo Jima. Key evidence includes stable seismic, deformation, and gas data absent precursors like rapid inflation or intense swarms typically preceding VEI 6 blasts. Realistic challenges include unforeseen caldera pressurization or swarm activity at monitored sites like Chiles-Cerro Negro, prompting rapid odds shifts; watch USGS weekly updates for new seismic indicators.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$80,316Enddatum
31. März 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no major volcanic eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, with "No" at 91.5% implied probability, driven by the rarity of such colossal events—ejecting at least 10 cubic kilometers of tephra and occurring only several times per century, as seen last with Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and debatably Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai in 2022. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports through May 2026 confirm 47 ongoing eruptions worldwide, all low VEI (≤4), with no elevated unrest at capable systems like Yellowstone (NORMAL/GREEN alert) or Iwo Jima. Key evidence includes stable seismic, deformation, and gas data absent precursors like rapid inflation or intense swarms typically preceding VEI 6 blasts. Realistic challenges include unforeseen caldera pressurization or swarm activity at monitored sites like Chiles-Cerro Negro, prompting rapid odds shifts; watch USGS weekly updates for new seismic indicators.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volumen
$80,316Enddatum
31. März 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no major volcanic eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, with "No" at 91.5% implied probability, driven by the rarity of such colossal events—ejecting at least 10 cubic kilometers of tephra and occurring only several times per century, as seen last with Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and debatably Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai in 2022. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports through May 2026 confirm 47 ongoing eruptions worldwide, all low VEI (≤4), with no elevated unrest at capable systems like Yellowstone (NORMAL/GREEN alert) or Iwo Jima. Key evidence includes stable seismic, deformation, and gas data absent precursors like rapid inflation or intense swarms typically preceding VEI 6 blasts. Realistic challenges include unforeseen caldera pressurization or swarm activity at monitored sites like Chiles-Cerro Negro, prompting rapid odds shifts; watch USGS weekly updates for new seismic indicators.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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