Trader sentiment strongly favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 59.5% implied probability, reflecting the low historical global average of roughly 0.6 such events per year documented by the Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program. No qualifying eruptions—those ejecting at least 0.1 km³ of tephra with plumes exceeding 10 km—have occurred through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide. Ongoing activity at sites like Semeru, Manam, and Sheveluch remains below the VEI 4 threshold on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. Poisson modeling of this baseline rate produces odds closely matching current market prices, with one event at 34.5%. Daily GVP and USGS monitoring reports will continue to track any shifts in magmatic unrest or plume heights through year-end resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie viele große Vulkanausbrüche (vei ≥4) im Jahr 2026?
Wie viele große Vulkanausbrüche (vei ≥4) im Jahr 2026?
0 60%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 1.4%
$1,078,726 Vol.
$1,078,726 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
0
60%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 60%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 1.4%
$1,078,726 Vol.
$1,078,726 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
0
$477,303 Vol.
60%
1
$260,191 Vol.
35%
2
$32,241 Vol.
4%
3
$26,075 Vol.
1%
4
$24,441 Vol.
<1%
5+
$258,475 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment strongly favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 59.5% implied probability, reflecting the low historical global average of roughly 0.6 such events per year documented by the Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program. No qualifying eruptions—those ejecting at least 0.1 km³ of tephra with plumes exceeding 10 km—have occurred through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide. Ongoing activity at sites like Semeru, Manam, and Sheveluch remains below the VEI 4 threshold on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. Poisson modeling of this baseline rate produces odds closely matching current market prices, with one event at 34.5%. Daily GVP and USGS monitoring reports will continue to track any shifts in magmatic unrest or plume heights through year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volumen
$1,078,726Enddatum
31. März 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment strongly favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 59.5% implied probability, reflecting the low historical global average of roughly 0.6 such events per year documented by the Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program. No qualifying eruptions—those ejecting at least 0.1 km³ of tephra with plumes exceeding 10 km—have occurred through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide. Ongoing activity at sites like Semeru, Manam, and Sheveluch remains below the VEI 4 threshold on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. Poisson modeling of this baseline rate produces odds closely matching current market prices, with one event at 34.5%. Daily GVP and USGS monitoring reports will continue to track any shifts in magmatic unrest or plume heights through year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,078,726Enddatum
31. März 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment strongly favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 59.5% implied probability, reflecting the low historical global average of roughly 0.6 such events per year documented by the Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program. No qualifying eruptions—those ejecting at least 0.1 km³ of tephra with plumes exceeding 10 km—have occurred through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide. Ongoing activity at sites like Semeru, Manam, and Sheveluch remains below the VEI 4 threshold on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. Poisson modeling of this baseline rate produces odds closely matching current market prices, with one event at 34.5%. Daily GVP and USGS monitoring reports will continue to track any shifts in magmatic unrest or plume heights through year-end resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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