Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (59.5%) to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026, driven by the historically low global frequency of such events—typically one or fewer per year on average—and the absence of any confirmed VEI 4+ activity through mid-August despite dozens of smaller ongoing eruptions tracked by the Global Volcanism Program. VEI classification relies on ejecta volume and plume height, with ≥4 requiring at least 0.1 km³ of material and substantial explosive power; recent monitoring shows persistent but lower-intensity unrest at sites like Iwo Jima without escalation. With roughly 4.5 months remaining, the market reflects realistic uncertainty around potential late-year intensification while weighting the strong baseline odds of continued quiescence at that scale.