NASA's Artemis program revisions in February 2026 shifted the first crewed lunar landing from Artemis III to Artemis IV, now targeted for 2028 after a successful Artemis II flyby in April 2026. With Artemis III repurposed as a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration and commercial landers from SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin still in development, no hardware or launch manifest supports a 2026 attempt. Trader consensus at 98.9% for "No" reflects these verified delays, plus China's 2030 timeline and absence of certified private alternatives. While an unexpected regulatory acceleration or breakthrough remains theoretically possible, months remaining in 2026 and ongoing technical readiness gaps make any reversal highly improbable.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
1% Chance
$1,967,148 Vol.
$1,967,148 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
1% Chance
$1,967,148 Vol.
$1,967,148 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's Artemis program revisions in February 2026 shifted the first crewed lunar landing from Artemis III to Artemis IV, now targeted for 2028 after a successful Artemis II flyby in April 2026. With Artemis III repurposed as a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration and commercial landers from SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin still in development, no hardware or launch manifest supports a 2026 attempt. Trader consensus at 98.9% for "No" reflects these verified delays, plus China's 2030 timeline and absence of certified private alternatives. While an unexpected regulatory acceleration or breakthrough remains theoretically possible, months remaining in 2026 and ongoing technical readiness gaps make any reversal highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$1,967,148Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's Artemis program revisions in February 2026 shifted the first crewed lunar landing from Artemis III to Artemis IV, now targeted for 2028 after a successful Artemis II flyby in April 2026. With Artemis III repurposed as a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration and commercial landers from SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin still in development, no hardware or launch manifest supports a 2026 attempt. Trader consensus at 98.9% for "No" reflects these verified delays, plus China's 2030 timeline and absence of certified private alternatives. While an unexpected regulatory acceleration or breakthrough remains theoretically possible, months remaining in 2026 and ongoing technical readiness gaps make any reversal highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,967,148Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Artemis program revisions in February 2026 shifted the first crewed lunar landing from Artemis III to Artemis IV, now targeted for 2028 after a successful Artemis II flyby in April 2026. With Artemis III repurposed as a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration and commercial landers from SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin still in development, no hardware or launch manifest supports a 2026 attempt. Trader consensus at 98.9% for "No" reflects these verified delays, plus China's 2030 timeline and absence of certified private alternatives. While an unexpected regulatory acceleration or breakthrough remains theoretically possible, months remaining in 2026 and ongoing technical readiness gaps make any reversal highly improbable.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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