Strong global surveillance from the CDC and WHO underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against a new pandemic in 2026, with no novel pathogen yet demonstrating sustained human-to-human transmission capable of exponential international spread through mid-August. Localized outbreaks, including Bundibugyo Ebola virus disease under a WHO PHEIC in the DRC and Uganda plus geographically limited clusters of hantavirus, mpox clade I, and dengue, remain contained without evidence of reassortment or pandemic potential. Post-COVID enhancements in genomic sequencing and early-warning systems further reduce escalation risk by enabling rapid detection of zoonotic spillovers. However, uncertainty persists around undetected animal reservoirs or rapid viral evolution that could enable wider transmission before year-end.