The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now exceeding 9,000 confirmed cases and 4,400 deaths since May, serves as the dominant driver of trader sentiment for countries reporting at least one case in 2026. Intense transmission across seven provinces, with Ituri and North Kivu as epicenters, has fueled imported incidents in Kenya (including a second linked case in mid-October) alongside earlier detections in Uganda and France. Neighboring nations face elevated cross-border risks amid travel patterns and contact tracing efforts, while the absence of approved vaccines or treatments for this strain heightens uncertainty. Upcoming catalysts include Kenya's ongoing surveillance results and any new hotspots emerging before year-end.