Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability for no new WHO-designated COVID-19 variant of concern before 2027, driven by the absence of qualifying SARS-CoV-2 strains amid robust global surveillance. The recent BA.3.2 "Cicada" variant, a variant under monitoring with potential immune escape mutations, peaked at 30% of sequences in parts of Europe by early 2026 but remains below 1% in U.S. cases as of mid-May, showing no surge in hospitalizations or severity to warrant elevation. Updated vaccines and hybrid immunity from prior infections continue suppressing major threats, with ECDC and WHO reports through late April confirming no new variants of concern, reinforcing stability in this endemic phase.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$238,719 Vol.
$238,719 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$238,719 Vol.
$238,719 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability for no new WHO-designated COVID-19 variant of concern before 2027, driven by the absence of qualifying SARS-CoV-2 strains amid robust global surveillance. The recent BA.3.2 "Cicada" variant, a variant under monitoring with potential immune escape mutations, peaked at 30% of sequences in parts of Europe by early 2026 but remains below 1% in U.S. cases as of mid-May, showing no surge in hospitalizations or severity to warrant elevation. Updated vaccines and hybrid immunity from prior infections continue suppressing major threats, with ECDC and WHO reports through late April confirming no new variants of concern, reinforcing stability in this endemic phase.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ET
Volumen
$238,719Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability for no new WHO-designated COVID-19 variant of concern before 2027, driven by the absence of qualifying SARS-CoV-2 strains amid robust global surveillance. The recent BA.3.2 "Cicada" variant, a variant under monitoring with potential immune escape mutations, peaked at 30% of sequences in parts of Europe by early 2026 but remains below 1% in U.S. cases as of mid-May, showing no surge in hospitalizations or severity to warrant elevation. Updated vaccines and hybrid immunity from prior infections continue suppressing major threats, with ECDC and WHO reports through late April confirming no new variants of concern, reinforcing stability in this endemic phase.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
Volumen
$238,719Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability for no new WHO-designated COVID-19 variant of concern before 2027, driven by the absence of qualifying SARS-CoV-2 strains amid robust global surveillance. The recent BA.3.2 "Cicada" variant, a variant under monitoring with potential immune escape mutations, peaked at 30% of sequences in parts of Europe by early 2026 but remains below 1% in U.S. cases as of mid-May, showing no surge in hospitalizations or severity to warrant elevation. Updated vaccines and hybrid immunity from prior infections continue suppressing major threats, with ECDC and WHO reports through late April confirming no new variants of concern, reinforcing stability in this endemic phase.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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