Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain confidence—no 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026—at 96.9%, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog and reports zero potential impacts for the year. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS cover over 90% of the sky for objects larger than 30 meters capable of releasing such energy (equivalent to ~25-30m diameter bolide), with all recent close approaches like 2026 FM3 and 2026 HJ deemed safe. Early 2026 fireball surges remain below 1 kiloton TNT, per CNEOS data. Realistic shifts could arise from late detection of an undiscovered small NEO, though odds stay low as monitoring intensifies through year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert1 Megatonnen-Meteorschlag im Jahr 2026?
1 Megatonnen-Meteorschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$106,001 Vol.
$106,001 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$106,001 Vol.
$106,001 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain confidence—no 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026—at 96.9%, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog and reports zero potential impacts for the year. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS cover over 90% of the sky for objects larger than 30 meters capable of releasing such energy (equivalent to ~25-30m diameter bolide), with all recent close approaches like 2026 FM3 and 2026 HJ deemed safe. Early 2026 fireball surges remain below 1 kiloton TNT, per CNEOS data. Realistic shifts could arise from late detection of an undiscovered small NEO, though odds stay low as monitoring intensifies through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$106,001Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain confidence—no 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026—at 96.9%, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog and reports zero potential impacts for the year. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS cover over 90% of the sky for objects larger than 30 meters capable of releasing such energy (equivalent to ~25-30m diameter bolide), with all recent close approaches like 2026 FM3 and 2026 HJ deemed safe. Early 2026 fireball surges remain below 1 kiloton TNT, per CNEOS data. Realistic shifts could arise from late detection of an undiscovered small NEO, though odds stay low as monitoring intensifies through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$106,001Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain confidence—no 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026—at 96.9%, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog and reports zero potential impacts for the year. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS cover over 90% of the sky for objects larger than 30 meters capable of releasing such energy (equivalent to ~25-30m diameter bolide), with all recent close approaches like 2026 FM3 and 2026 HJ deemed safe. Early 2026 fireball surges remain below 1 kiloton TNT, per CNEOS data. Realistic shifts could arise from late detection of an undiscovered small NEO, though odds stay low as monitoring intensifies through year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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