Extensive global monitoring by radar arrays, optical telescopes, and infrared surveys from NASA’s CNEOS and ESA’s NEOCC has cataloged all sizable near-Earth objects, confirming none on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026 and driving the 98.7% “No” consensus. Statistical impact rates for a 1-megaton event—roughly one every several hundred to a few thousand years—align with this pricing, while recent small-fireball upticks remain well below megaton thresholds. The slim remaining uncertainty stems from a possible undetected long-period comet or last-minute orbital revision, though both would require improbable timing and size to alter resolution before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert1 Megatonnen-Meteorschlag im Jahr 2026?
1 Megatonnen-Meteorschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
1% Chance
$116,329 Vol.
$116,329 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
1% Chance
$116,329 Vol.
$116,329 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive global monitoring by radar arrays, optical telescopes, and infrared surveys from NASA’s CNEOS and ESA’s NEOCC has cataloged all sizable near-Earth objects, confirming none on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026 and driving the 98.7% “No” consensus. Statistical impact rates for a 1-megaton event—roughly one every several hundred to a few thousand years—align with this pricing, while recent small-fireball upticks remain well below megaton thresholds. The slim remaining uncertainty stems from a possible undetected long-period comet or last-minute orbital revision, though both would require improbable timing and size to alter resolution before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$116,329Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive global monitoring by radar arrays, optical telescopes, and infrared surveys from NASA’s CNEOS and ESA’s NEOCC has cataloged all sizable near-Earth objects, confirming none on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026 and driving the 98.7% “No” consensus. Statistical impact rates for a 1-megaton event—roughly one every several hundred to a few thousand years—align with this pricing, while recent small-fireball upticks remain well below megaton thresholds. The slim remaining uncertainty stems from a possible undetected long-period comet or last-minute orbital revision, though both would require improbable timing and size to alter resolution before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$116,329Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive global monitoring by radar arrays, optical telescopes, and infrared surveys from NASA’s CNEOS and ESA’s NEOCC has cataloged all sizable near-Earth objects, confirming none on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026 and driving the 98.7% “No” consensus. Statistical impact rates for a 1-megaton event—roughly one every several hundred to a few thousand years—align with this pricing, while recent small-fireball upticks remain well below megaton thresholds. The slim remaining uncertainty stems from a possible undetected long-period comet or last-minute orbital revision, though both would require improbable timing and size to alter resolution before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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