NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system reports no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst in 2026, anchoring the market’s strong “No” consensus. Comprehensive optical surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina have catalogued all sizable candidates well in advance, with recent safe close approaches such as asteroid 2026 JH2 reinforcing that all tracked objects remain non-threatening. Historical records show events of this energy scale occur roughly once per decade, consistent with the 440-kiloton Chelyabinsk airburst of 2013. The primary residual uncertainty stems from the slim chance of a previously undetected sub-30-meter bolide entering undetected, though ongoing infrared survey enhancements continue to reduce that possibility ahead of year-end resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert100kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
100kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system reports no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst in 2026, anchoring the market’s strong “No” consensus. Comprehensive optical surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina have catalogued all sizable candidates well in advance, with recent safe close approaches such as asteroid 2026 JH2 reinforcing that all tracked objects remain non-threatening. Historical records show events of this energy scale occur roughly once per decade, consistent with the 440-kiloton Chelyabinsk airburst of 2013. The primary residual uncertainty stems from the slim chance of a previously undetected sub-30-meter bolide entering undetected, though ongoing infrared survey enhancements continue to reduce that possibility ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volumen
$7,235Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system reports no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst in 2026, anchoring the market’s strong “No” consensus. Comprehensive optical surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina have catalogued all sizable candidates well in advance, with recent safe close approaches such as asteroid 2026 JH2 reinforcing that all tracked objects remain non-threatening. Historical records show events of this energy scale occur roughly once per decade, consistent with the 440-kiloton Chelyabinsk airburst of 2013. The primary residual uncertainty stems from the slim chance of a previously undetected sub-30-meter bolide entering undetected, though ongoing infrared survey enhancements continue to reduce that possibility ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$7,235Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system reports no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst in 2026, anchoring the market’s strong “No” consensus. Comprehensive optical surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina have catalogued all sizable candidates well in advance, with recent safe close approaches such as asteroid 2026 JH2 reinforcing that all tracked objects remain non-threatening. Historical records show events of this energy scale occur roughly once per decade, consistent with the 440-kiloton Chelyabinsk airburst of 2013. The primary residual uncertainty stems from the slim chance of a previously undetected sub-30-meter bolide entering undetected, though ongoing infrared survey enhancements continue to reduce that possibility ahead of year-end resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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