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icon for Ändert sich die 1,5°C-Frist der Climate Clock bis zum...?
Klima & Wissenschaft·Klima

Ändert sich die 1,5°C-Frist der Climate Clock bis zum...?

icon for Ändert sich die 1,5°C-Frist der Climate Clock bis zum...?
Klima & Wissenschaft·Klima

Ändert sich die 1,5°C-Frist der Climate Clock bis zum...?

0% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
0% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date. A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”. The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies. Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Stable high global CO2 emission rates near 42 Gt annually, with no rapid decarbonization evident in 2025-2026 data, keep the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C on a consistent depletion track, underpinning the 61% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock deadline stays fixed through year-end. Recent assessments from UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report and monitoring groups confirm continued acceleration of human-caused warming without the sharp emissions drops or revised budgets needed to shift projections. The clock, drawing from MCC carbon budget models updated periodically, shows roughly 2-3 years remaining as of August 2026; quarterly revisions or new observational data would be required for a meaningful change before December 31.

Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.

A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.

The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.

Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volumen
$100
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2029
Markt eröffnet
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://climateclock.world

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date. A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”. The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies. Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date. A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”. The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies. Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Stable high global CO2 emission rates near 42 Gt annually, with no rapid decarbonization evident in 2025-2026 data, keep the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C on a consistent depletion track, underpinning the 61% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock deadline stays fixed through year-end. Recent assessments from UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report and monitoring groups confirm continued acceleration of human-caused warming without the sharp emissions drops or revised budgets needed to shift projections. The clock, drawing from MCC carbon budget models updated periodically, shows roughly 2-3 years remaining as of August 2026; quarterly revisions or new observational data would be required for a meaningful change before December 31.

Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.

A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.

The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.

Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volumen
$100
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://climateclock.world

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date. A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”. The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies. Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.

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Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Ändert sich die 1,5°C-Frist der Climate Clock bis zum...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 38% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 38¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 38%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Ändert sich die 1,5°C-Frist der Climate Clock bis zum...?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 19, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Ändert sich die 1,5°C-Frist der Climate Clock bis zum...?" zu handeln, wählen Sie einfach, ob Sie glauben, dass die Antwort „Ja" oder „Nein" lautet. Jede Seite hat einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes widerspiegelt. Geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile kaufen und das Ergebnis als „Ja" aufgelöst wird, zahlt jeder Anteil $1 aus. Wird es als „Nein" aufgelöst, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen, um einen Gewinn zu sichern oder einen Verlust zu begrenzen.

Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Ändert sich die 1,5°C-Frist der Climate Clock bis zum...?" liegt bei 38% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 38% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Ändert sich die 1,5°C-Frist der Climate Clock bis zum...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.