The Met Office reports that the UK’s mean summer temperature through mid-August 2026 already stands at 16.48°C, 1.88°C above the 1991-2020 baseline and well ahead of the 16.12°C record set in 2025. This reflects repeated heatwaves, including the first verified 35°C readings across May–July and a provisional 38.1°C peak in August, alongside elevated overnight minima. Only near-average conditions are now required for the final weeks of meteorological summer to establish a new record, consistent with long-term warming trends that have made such extremes substantially more probable. Traders assign a 74.5% implied probability to “Yes” because official provisional data leave limited room for reversal before 31 August.