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icon for Wann wird sich 2026 der erste Hurrikan im Atlantik bilden?
Klima & Wissenschaft·Klima

Wann wird sich 2026 der erste Hurrikan im Atlantik bilden?

icon for Wann wird sich 2026 der erste Hurrikan im Atlantik bilden?
Klima & Wissenschaft·Klima

Wann wird sich 2026 der erste Hurrikan im Atlantik bilden?

Im August 2026 wird sich kein atlantischer Hurrikan bilden 100.0%

13. August bis 16. August 2026 <1%

17. August bis 21. August 2026 <1%

22. August bis 26. August 2026 <1%

Polymarket

$17,690 Vol.

Im August 2026 wird sich kein atlantischer Hurrikan bilden 100.0%

13. August bis 16. August 2026 <1%

17. August bis 21. August 2026 <1%

22. August bis 26. August 2026 <1%

Polymarket

$17,690 Vol.

13. August bis 16. August 2026

$427 Vol.

Nein

17. August bis 21. August 2026

$383 Vol.

Nein

22. August bis 26. August 2026

$1,414 Vol.

Nein

27. August bis 31. August 2026

$3,398 Vol.

Nein

Im August 2026 wird sich kein atlantischer Hurrikan bilden

$12,067 Vol.

Ja

This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026. The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Strong El Niño conditions have driven the market's near-certain consensus that no Atlantic hurricane formed in August 2026. Persistent high wind shear, dry mid-level air, and suppressed convection across the main development region prevented the four named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly—from intensifying beyond tropical storm strength, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center analyses through August 31. This marks one of the quietest starts in decades, with accumulated cyclone energy running roughly 90% below the 1991-2020 average. Historical analogs show first hurricanes typically arrive by mid-August, but similar El Niño years have delayed formation into September. A rapid weakening of the El Niño or an unusually favorable September wave could still allow an early hurricane, though current NOAA forecasts indicate continued suppression through mid-month.

This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".

A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.

The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026. The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Volumen
$17,690
Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein

This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026. The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Strong El Niño conditions have driven the market's near-certain consensus that no Atlantic hurricane formed in August 2026. Persistent high wind shear, dry mid-level air, and suppressed convection across the main development region prevented the four named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly—from intensifying beyond tropical storm strength, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center analyses through August 31. This marks one of the quietest starts in decades, with accumulated cyclone energy running roughly 90% below the 1991-2020 average. Historical analogs show first hurricanes typically arrive by mid-August, but similar El Niño years have delayed formation into September. A rapid weakening of the El Niño or an unusually favorable September wave could still allow an early hurricane, though current NOAA forecasts indicate continued suppression through mid-month.

This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".

A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.

The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026. The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Volumen
$17,690
Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein

Verwandte

icon for Wird sich im September 2026 kein Atlantik-Hurrikan bilden?

Wird sich im September 2026 kein Atlantik-Hurrikan bilden?

92%
Ja
icon for Wird der Name des ersten Hurrikans im Atlantik für die Hurrikansaison 2026 Fay sein?

Wird der Name des ersten Hurrikans im Atlantik für die Hurrikansaison 2026 Fay sein?

35%
Ja
icon for Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

61%

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wann wird sich 2026 der erste Hurrikan im Atlantik bilden?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Im August 2026 wird sich kein atlantischer Hurrikan bilden" mit 100%, gefolgt von „13. August bis 16. August 2026" mit 0%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 100¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wann wird sich 2026 der erste Hurrikan im Atlantik bilden?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $17.7K generiert, seit der Markt am Aug 12, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Wann wird sich 2026 der erste Hurrikan im Atlantik bilden?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 5 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wann wird sich 2026 der erste Hurrikan im Atlantik bilden?" ist „Im August 2026 wird sich kein atlantischer Hurrikan bilden" mit 100%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „13. August bis 16. August 2026" mit 0%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Wann wird sich 2026 der erste Hurrikan im Atlantik bilden?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.