A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.0–2.5°C and models projecting a potential record peak later in 2026, is the dominant near-term driver of elevated global temperatures. This event loads additional heat into the climate system, though the typical 3–5 month lag means its strongest influence on surface anomalies will appear later. Current analyses place early September 2026 daily means near +1.0°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, consistent with a September monthly anomaly likely falling in the 1.30–1.45°C range above pre-industrial levels once converted. Model ensembles show wide spreads due to internal variability, differing observational datasets, and the precise timing of ocean-atmosphere coupling, producing the observed near-even market probabilities across adjacent bins. Updated ENSO outlooks and early monthly temperature releases from agencies such as NOAA and NASA will provide the next key data points.