Record-low winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, combined with fifth-lowest June values and 14% below-median extent by late July, anchors trader expectations for a September minimum near 4.3–4.5 million square kilometers. Early melt onset along Atlantic and Siberian margins, driven by persistent warm air intrusions and reduced ice thickness, has accelerated seasonal loss relative to the 1981–2010 baseline. Model consensus and historical analogs from similarly thin starting conditions support the tight clustering around the 4.2–4.6 million square kilometer bins, though late-summer weather variability and remaining melt potential introduce uncertainty in final extent.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMinimale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Sommer?
4,4–4,6 Mio. km² 28.1%
4,2–4,4 Mio. km² 25.0%
4,6–4,8 Mio. qkm 18.7%
4,0–4,2 Mio. km² 9.0%
$66,245 Vol.
$66,245 Vol.
<4 Mio. km²
9%
4,0–4,2 Mio. km²
9%
4,2–4,4 Mio. km²
25%
4,4–4,6 Mio. km²
28%
4,6–4,8 Mio. qkm
19%
4,8-5 Mio. qkm
1%
5 Mio.+ qkm
2%
4,4–4,6 Mio. km² 28.1%
4,2–4,4 Mio. km² 25.0%
4,6–4,8 Mio. qkm 18.7%
4,0–4,2 Mio. km² 9.0%
$66,245 Vol.
$66,245 Vol.
<4 Mio. km²
9%
4,0–4,2 Mio. km²
9%
4,2–4,4 Mio. km²
25%
4,4–4,6 Mio. km²
28%
4,6–4,8 Mio. qkm
19%
4,8-5 Mio. qkm
1%
5 Mio.+ qkm
2%
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, combined with fifth-lowest June values and 14% below-median extent by late July, anchors trader expectations for a September minimum near 4.3–4.5 million square kilometers. Early melt onset along Atlantic and Siberian margins, driven by persistent warm air intrusions and reduced ice thickness, has accelerated seasonal loss relative to the 1981–2010 baseline. Model consensus and historical analogs from similarly thin starting conditions support the tight clustering around the 4.2–4.6 million square kilometer bins, though late-summer weather variability and remaining melt potential introduce uncertainty in final extent.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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