Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate a high-pressure system promoting clear skies and strong daytime radiative heating over central Spain, positioning Madrid’s August 15 maximum near 33–34 °C and explaining the market’s concentration on 32–34 °C outcomes. Model consensus shows limited cloud cover and light southeasterly winds, with ensemble spreads reflecting typical summer variability of 1–2 °C driven by boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects. Historical August climatology (average highs ~32 °C) supports these values, while the low probabilities assigned to 36 °C+ reflect the absence of anomalous heat advection or Saharan air intrusions in current guidance. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final observational tiebreaker for market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 15. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 15. August?
32°C 35%
33°C 19%
34°C 17%
31°C 14%
NEU
$26,478 Vol.
NEU
$26,478 Vol.
15. Aug. 2026
30°C or below
2%
31°C
14%
32°C
35%
33°C
19%
34°C
17%
35°C
11%
36°C
3%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
32°C 35%
33°C 19%
34°C 17%
31°C 14%
NEU
$26,478 Vol.
NEU
$26,478 Vol.
15. Aug. 2026
30°C or below
$2,799 Vol.
2%
31°C
$4,848 Vol.
14%
32°C
$3,859 Vol.
35%
33°C
$5,550 Vol.
19%
34°C
$3,159 Vol.
17%
35°C
$2,608 Vol.
11%
36°C
$2,136 Vol.
3%
37°C
$570 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$443 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$258 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$248 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate a high-pressure system promoting clear skies and strong daytime radiative heating over central Spain, positioning Madrid’s August 15 maximum near 33–34 °C and explaining the market’s concentration on 32–34 °C outcomes. Model consensus shows limited cloud cover and light southeasterly winds, with ensemble spreads reflecting typical summer variability of 1–2 °C driven by boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects. Historical August climatology (average highs ~32 °C) supports these values, while the low probabilities assigned to 36 °C+ reflect the absence of anomalous heat advection or Saharan air intrusions in current guidance. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final observational tiebreaker for market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$26,478Enddatum
15. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate a high-pressure system promoting clear skies and strong daytime radiative heating over central Spain, positioning Madrid’s August 15 maximum near 33–34 °C and explaining the market’s concentration on 32–34 °C outcomes. Model consensus shows limited cloud cover and light southeasterly winds, with ensemble spreads reflecting typical summer variability of 1–2 °C driven by boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects. Historical August climatology (average highs ~32 °C) supports these values, while the low probabilities assigned to 36 °C+ reflect the absence of anomalous heat advection or Saharan air intrusions in current guidance. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final observational tiebreaker for market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$26,478Enddatum
15. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate a high-pressure system promoting clear skies and strong daytime radiative heating over central Spain, positioning Madrid’s August 15 maximum near 33–34 °C and explaining the market’s concentration on 32–34 °C outcomes. Model consensus shows limited cloud cover and light southeasterly winds, with ensemble spreads reflecting typical summer variability of 1–2 °C driven by boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects. Historical August climatology (average highs ~32 °C) supports these values, while the low probabilities assigned to 36 °C+ reflect the absence of anomalous heat advection or Saharan air intrusions in current guidance. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final observational tiebreaker for market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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