Congressional gridlock and the current administration’s deregulatory priorities continue to suppress prospects for comprehensive federal AI safety legislation by the end of 2026. Multiple bills addressing frontier model oversight and accountability have been introduced in the 119th Congress, yet none have advanced beyond committee or secured the bipartisan support needed for passage. Executive actions, including a December 2025 national policy framework emphasizing minimal burdens on developers and challenges to conflicting state measures, signal preference for lighter-touch approaches over new statutory mandates. State-level activity has accelerated instead, with hundreds of bills enacted or pending across dozens of states. Traders interpret this pattern—combined with competing legislative priorities and historical difficulty enacting broad tech regulation—as strong evidence against near-term enactment of a qualifying safety bill.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
13% Chance
$101,400 Vol.
$101,400 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
13% Chance
$101,400 Vol.
$101,400 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Congressional gridlock and the current administration’s deregulatory priorities continue to suppress prospects for comprehensive federal AI safety legislation by the end of 2026. Multiple bills addressing frontier model oversight and accountability have been introduced in the 119th Congress, yet none have advanced beyond committee or secured the bipartisan support needed for passage. Executive actions, including a December 2025 national policy framework emphasizing minimal burdens on developers and challenges to conflicting state measures, signal preference for lighter-touch approaches over new statutory mandates. State-level activity has accelerated instead, with hundreds of bills enacted or pending across dozens of states. Traders interpret this pattern—combined with competing legislative priorities and historical difficulty enacting broad tech regulation—as strong evidence against near-term enactment of a qualifying safety bill.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volumen
$101,400Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Congressional gridlock and the current administration’s deregulatory priorities continue to suppress prospects for comprehensive federal AI safety legislation by the end of 2026. Multiple bills addressing frontier model oversight and accountability have been introduced in the 119th Congress, yet none have advanced beyond committee or secured the bipartisan support needed for passage. Executive actions, including a December 2025 national policy framework emphasizing minimal burdens on developers and challenges to conflicting state measures, signal preference for lighter-touch approaches over new statutory mandates. State-level activity has accelerated instead, with hundreds of bills enacted or pending across dozens of states. Traders interpret this pattern—combined with competing legislative priorities and historical difficulty enacting broad tech regulation—as strong evidence against near-term enactment of a qualifying safety bill.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$101,400Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congressional gridlock and the current administration’s deregulatory priorities continue to suppress prospects for comprehensive federal AI safety legislation by the end of 2026. Multiple bills addressing frontier model oversight and accountability have been introduced in the 119th Congress, yet none have advanced beyond committee or secured the bipartisan support needed for passage. Executive actions, including a December 2025 national policy framework emphasizing minimal burdens on developers and challenges to conflicting state measures, signal preference for lighter-touch approaches over new statutory mandates. State-level activity has accelerated instead, with hundreds of bills enacted or pending across dozens of states. Traders interpret this pattern—combined with competing legislative priorities and historical difficulty enacting broad tech regulation—as strong evidence against near-term enactment of a qualifying safety bill.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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