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Technik·Business

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

icon for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Technik·Business

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Juni 30

Dez. 31

Juni 30

Dez. 31

$13,993 Vol.

31. Dez. 2026
Polymarket

$13,993 Vol.

Polymarket

Google

$1,770 Vol.

65%

OpenAI

$3,293 Vol.

42%

xAI

$3,148 Vol.

21%

ByteDance

$1,139 Vol.

15%

Meta

$881 Vol.

14%

Z.ai

$82 Vol.

11%

DeepSeek

$440 Vol.

10%

Microsoft

$100 Vol.

10%

Alibaba

$0 Vol.

9%

Moonshot

$320 Vol.

9%

Baidu

$102 Vol.

9%

Amazon

$86 Vol.

9%

Mistral

$1,448 Vol.

8%

Meituan

$1,183 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard—the key resolution source—with Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking at #1 (1502 Elo) and multiple variants in the top four, driven by April releases excelling in agentic coding (SWE-Bench scores above 87%) and new domain-specific leaderboards released May 8 showcasing dominance across seven categories like gaming and simulations. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 closely trails on aggregated benchmarks like LMSys Elo (1510), bolstered by May updates in image generation and reasoning, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro tops vision and long-context tasks. Trader sentiment reflects expectations of compute-fueled surges from Google and OpenAI frontier models later in 2026, amid U.S. safety testing of xAI and Google systems; watch developer conferences and Q3 earnings for timeline shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$13,993
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard—the key resolution source—with Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking at #1 (1502 Elo) and multiple variants in the top four, driven by April releases excelling in agentic coding (SWE-Bench scores above 87%) and new domain-specific leaderboards released May 8 showcasing dominance across seven categories like gaming and simulations. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 closely trails on aggregated benchmarks like LMSys Elo (1510), bolstered by May updates in image generation and reasoning, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro tops vision and long-context tasks. Trader sentiment reflects expectations of compute-fueled surges from Google and OpenAI frontier models later in 2026, amid U.S. safety testing of xAI and Google systems; watch developer conferences and Q3 earnings for timeline shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$13,993
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 14 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Google" mit 65%, gefolgt von „OpenAI" mit 42%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 65¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 65% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $14K generiert, seit der Markt am Apr 30, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 14 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" ist „Google" mit 65%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 65% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „OpenAI" mit 42%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.