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Tech·Business

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

icon for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Tech·Business

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Juni 30

Dez. 31

Juni 30

Dez. 31

$47,130 Vol.

31. Dez. 2026
Polymarket

$47,130 Vol.

Polymarket

OpenAI

$9,756 Vol.

38%

Google

$13,363 Vol.

31%

xAI

$5,588 Vol.

17%

Meta

$3,686 Vol.

14%

ByteDance

$2,202 Vol.

10%

DeepSeek

$2,067 Vol.

10%

Amazon

$1,313 Vol.

10%

Microsoft

$2,264 Vol.

10%

Alibaba

$500 Vol.

9%

Moonshot

$576 Vol.

9%

Z.ai

$956 Vol.

9%

Baidu

$581 Vol.

9%

Mistral

$2,625 Vol.

7%

Meituan

$1,653 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads trader sentiment due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Claude Fable 5 models topping major June 2026 leaderboards like LMSYS Arena and LLM Stats with the highest overall scores in reasoning, coding, and general capabilities. These releases have widened the gap over OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3 variants, which remain competitive on specific benchmarks but trail in composite rankings. The market reflects tight frontier competition among a handful of labs, with performance converging and advantages often hinging on context windows, agentic tasks, or cost-efficiency rather than raw capability. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model drops or updates from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and xAI before year-end, alongside ongoing regulatory evaluations that could influence deployment timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$47,130
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads trader sentiment due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Claude Fable 5 models topping major June 2026 leaderboards like LMSYS Arena and LLM Stats with the highest overall scores in reasoning, coding, and general capabilities. These releases have widened the gap over OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3 variants, which remain competitive on specific benchmarks but trail in composite rankings. The market reflects tight frontier competition among a handful of labs, with performance converging and advantages often hinging on context windows, agentic tasks, or cost-efficiency rather than raw capability. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model drops or updates from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and xAI before year-end, alongside ongoing regulatory evaluations that could influence deployment timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$47,130
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 14 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „OpenAI" mit 38%, gefolgt von „Google" mit 31%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 38¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 38% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $47.1K generiert, seit der Markt am Apr 30, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 14 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" ist „OpenAI" mit 38%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 38% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Google" mit 31%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.