OpenAI’s recent private funding round at a $1.25 trillion valuation, down from an initial $1.4 trillion target amid investor pushback and October tech-sector volatility, anchors trader expectations for its eventual IPO closing market cap. Revenue run-rate momentum near $50 billion annualized, with projections toward $70 billion by year-end following model launches, supports the 37% implied probability on a $1.5 trillion-plus outcome, while the March 2026 $852 billion post-money mark provides a lower base. Explicit statements ruling out a 2026 listing and prioritizing AI safety have elevated the 23.7% chance of no IPO by December 31, 2027, as the company eyes a 2027 debut after its confidential SEC filing. Upcoming catalysts include the completion of the current bridge round and any updates on regulatory or market conditions affecting listing timing.