Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 70% implied probability to no OpenAI initial public offering by December 31, 2026, reflecting recent Wall Street Journal disclosures of missed revenue and user growth targets amid ballooning AI infrastructure costs, including over $600 billion in data center commitments. CFO Sarah Friar's reported skepticism toward CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 timeline—citing unreadiness for public reporting—has amplified doubts following the firm's $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation in late March. While over 600 employees recently sold $6.6 billion in shares for liquidity, trillion-dollar IPO outcomes topping 8.9% for 1.5T+ capture residual hype around OpenAI's large language model leadership, tempered by enterprise shifts and competition from Anthropic. Watch for S-1 filings or board updates as resolution nears.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKein IPO bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 72%
1,5T+ 8.9%
1,25T–1,5T 3.4%
500–750 Mrd. 3.4%
$1,637,996 Vol.
$1,637,996 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
<500 Mrd.
1%
500–750 Mrd.
3%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio.
2%
1T–1,25T
3%
1,25T–1,5T
3%
1,5T+
9%
Kein IPO bis zum 31. Dezember 2026
72%
Kein IPO bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 72%
1,5T+ 8.9%
1,25T–1,5T 3.4%
500–750 Mrd. 3.4%
$1,637,996 Vol.
$1,637,996 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
<500 Mrd.
$266,158 Vol.
1%
500–750 Mrd.
$146,331 Vol.
3%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio.
$141,040 Vol.
2%
1T–1,25T
$182,384 Vol.
3%
1,25T–1,5T
$496,174 Vol.
3%
1,5T+
$100,916 Vol.
9%
Kein IPO bis zum 31. Dezember 2026
$304,993 Vol.
72%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 70% implied probability to no OpenAI initial public offering by December 31, 2026, reflecting recent Wall Street Journal disclosures of missed revenue and user growth targets amid ballooning AI infrastructure costs, including over $600 billion in data center commitments. CFO Sarah Friar's reported skepticism toward CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 timeline—citing unreadiness for public reporting—has amplified doubts following the firm's $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation in late March. While over 600 employees recently sold $6.6 billion in shares for liquidity, trillion-dollar IPO outcomes topping 8.9% for 1.5T+ capture residual hype around OpenAI's large language model leadership, tempered by enterprise shifts and competition from Anthropic. Watch for S-1 filings or board updates as resolution nears.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,637,996Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 70% implied probability to no OpenAI initial public offering by December 31, 2026, reflecting recent Wall Street Journal disclosures of missed revenue and user growth targets amid ballooning AI infrastructure costs, including over $600 billion in data center commitments. CFO Sarah Friar's reported skepticism toward CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 timeline—citing unreadiness for public reporting—has amplified doubts following the firm's $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation in late March. While over 600 employees recently sold $6.6 billion in shares for liquidity, trillion-dollar IPO outcomes topping 8.9% for 1.5T+ capture residual hype around OpenAI's large language model leadership, tempered by enterprise shifts and competition from Anthropic. Watch for S-1 filings or board updates as resolution nears.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,637,996Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 70% implied probability to no OpenAI initial public offering by December 31, 2026, reflecting recent Wall Street Journal disclosures of missed revenue and user growth targets amid ballooning AI infrastructure costs, including over $600 billion in data center commitments. CFO Sarah Friar's reported skepticism toward CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 timeline—citing unreadiness for public reporting—has amplified doubts following the firm's $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation in late March. While over 600 employees recently sold $6.6 billion in shares for liquidity, trillion-dollar IPO outcomes topping 8.9% for 1.5T+ capture residual hype around OpenAI's large language model leadership, tempered by enterprise shifts and competition from Anthropic. Watch for S-1 filings or board updates as resolution nears.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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