**No at 77.9% reflects the binding legal halt on the Paramount Skydance–Warner Bros. Discovery merger.** The $111 billion all-cash deal, announced February 2026 and approved by shareholders in April plus the DOJ in June, faces an active antitrust challenge from 12 state attorneys general. In July 2026 the parties stipulated to pause closing until June 2027 or a final court ruling, whichever comes first, after a federal judge issued a temporary restraining order citing serious competitive concerns over consolidated film distribution, cable networks, and news operations. This extension—coupled with a March 2027 trial date—makes completion before December 31, 2026, improbable absent an unexpectedly swift victory or settlement. While federal clearance and a ticking-fee mechanism signal corporate confidence in eventual approval, the state litigation creates a clear near-term barrier that traders have priced into the market-implied odds.