Spain’s status as the world’s second-ranked side and defending European champions underpins the 78.5% implied probability traders assign to them topping Group H. The squad’s blend of technical depth, recent major-tournament success, and favorable draw against lower-ranked opponents has produced minimal pre-tournament volatility. Uruguay sits at 19.5% on the strength of its experienced core led by Federico Valverde and a history of overperforming expectations, though the post-Suárez/Cavani transition introduces some uncertainty. Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde remain at 2.0% and 0.9% respectively, reflecting limited recent competitive form and lower FIFA rankings ahead of the June 15 kickoff.