Traders view the contest for second place among AI labs by end of November as highly uncertain, with multiple entrants sharing 50% implied probabilities that reflect balanced assessments of competitive positioning. Recent model releases and capability demonstrations in style control for large language models have kept several labs in close contention, driven by differences in integration speed, benchmark results on creative output consistency, and developer ecosystem support. Key swing factors include upcoming announcements on feature rollouts, user adoption trends, and any shifts in partnerships or talent moves that could alter relative standings before resolution. The market-implied odds capture real capital at risk while acknowledging how quickly AI timelines can shift due to technical or execution surprises.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoXiaomi 18%
Baidu 14%
Microsoft 14%
Thinky 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 nov 2026
Xiaomi
18%
Baidu
14%
Microsoft
14%
Thinky
13%
MiniMax
13%
Meta
12%
Z.ai
12%
OpenAI
16%
Tencent
12%
Moonshot
12%
Amazon
11%
Mistral
8%
ByteDance
7%
Nvidia
7%
StepFun
7%
Anthropic
6%
Alibaba
5%
SpaceXAI
5%
13%
DeepSeek
15%
Meituan
15%
Xiaomi 18%
Baidu 14%
Microsoft 14%
Thinky 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 nov 2026
Xiaomi
$53 Vol.
18%
Baidu
$53 Vol.
14%
Microsoft
$53 Vol.
14%
Thinky
$53 Vol.
13%
MiniMax
$53 Vol.
13%
Meta
$53 Vol.
12%
Z.ai
$84 Vol.
12%
OpenAI
$75 Vol.
16%
Tencent
$53 Vol.
12%
Moonshot
$53 Vol.
12%
Amazon
$53 Vol.
11%
Mistral
$53 Vol.
8%
ByteDance
$53 Vol.
7%
Nvidia
$53 Vol.
7%
StepFun
$53 Vol.
7%
Anthropic
$53 Vol.
6%
Alibaba
$97 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$53 Vol.
5%
$86 Vol.
13%
DeepSeek
$53 Vol.
15%
Meituan
$53 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the contest for second place among AI labs by end of November as highly uncertain, with multiple entrants sharing 50% implied probabilities that reflect balanced assessments of competitive positioning. Recent model releases and capability demonstrations in style control for large language models have kept several labs in close contention, driven by differences in integration speed, benchmark results on creative output consistency, and developer ecosystem support. Key swing factors include upcoming announcements on feature rollouts, user adoption trends, and any shifts in partnerships or talent moves that could alter relative standings before resolution. The market-implied odds capture real capital at risk while acknowledging how quickly AI timelines can shift due to technical or execution surprises.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Volumen
$1,246Fecha de finalización
1 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the contest for second place among AI labs by end of November as highly uncertain, with multiple entrants sharing 50% implied probabilities that reflect balanced assessments of competitive positioning. Recent model releases and capability demonstrations in style control for large language models have kept several labs in close contention, driven by differences in integration speed, benchmark results on creative output consistency, and developer ecosystem support. Key swing factors include upcoming announcements on feature rollouts, user adoption trends, and any shifts in partnerships or talent moves that could alter relative standings before resolution. The market-implied odds capture real capital at risk while acknowledging how quickly AI timelines can shift due to technical or execution surprises.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$1,246Fecha de finalización
1 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view the contest for second place among AI labs by end of November as highly uncertain, with multiple entrants sharing 50% implied probabilities that reflect balanced assessments of competitive positioning. Recent model releases and capability demonstrations in style control for large language models have kept several labs in close contention, driven by differences in integration speed, benchmark results on creative output consistency, and developer ecosystem support. Key swing factors include upcoming announcements on feature rollouts, user adoption trends, and any shifts in partnerships or talent moves that could alter relative standings before resolution. The market-implied odds capture real capital at risk while acknowledging how quickly AI timelines can shift due to technical or execution surprises.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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