Recent national generic ballot polling averages show Democrats leading Republicans by roughly 7–9 points, a margin that has widened in September amid President Trump’s approval ratings near 38% and voter dissatisfaction with elevated gas prices, tariffs, and the ongoing conflict with Iran. These conditions align with historical patterns of midterm losses for the president’s party and have prompted forecasters to project a Democratic national House popular vote advantage in the mid-to-high single digits. Prediction market pricing places the highest probabilities on Democratic margins of 6–12 points while assigning substantial weight to “Other,” reflecting uncertainty over the precise final spread given remaining volatility, redistricting effects, and turnout variables in the final weeks before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado2026 Parciales: Margen de victoria del voto popular de la Cámara
2026 Parciales: Margen de victoria del voto popular de la Cámara
Demócratas 8-10% 28%
Demócratas 6-8% 21%
Demócratas 10-12% 20%
Demócratas 4-6% 12%
$136,074 Vol.
$136,074 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Demócratas 16%+
2%
Demócratas 14-16%
2%
Demócratas 12-14%
7%
Demócratas 10-12%
20%
Demócratas 8-10%
28%
Demócratas 6-8%
21%
Demócratas 4-6%
12%
Demócratas 2-4%
7%
Demócratas 0-2%
2%
Republicanos 0-2%
3%
Republicanos 2-4%
3%
Republicanos 4-6%
1%
Republicanos 6%+
1%
Demócratas 8-10% 28%
Demócratas 6-8% 21%
Demócratas 10-12% 20%
Demócratas 4-6% 12%
$136,074 Vol.
$136,074 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Demócratas 16%+
$3,639 Vol.
2%
Demócratas 14-16%
$3,422 Vol.
2%
Demócratas 12-14%
$4,723 Vol.
7%
Demócratas 10-12%
$9,084 Vol.
20%
Demócratas 8-10%
$14,498 Vol.
28%
Demócratas 6-8%
$15,674 Vol.
21%
Demócratas 4-6%
$7,020 Vol.
12%
Demócratas 2-4%
$15,637 Vol.
7%
Demócratas 0-2%
$18,277 Vol.
2%
Republicanos 0-2%
$5,981 Vol.
3%
Republicanos 2-4%
$30,409 Vol.
3%
Republicanos 4-6%
$3,748 Vol.
1%
Republicanos 6%+
$3,962 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent national generic ballot polling averages show Democrats leading Republicans by roughly 7–9 points, a margin that has widened in September amid President Trump’s approval ratings near 38% and voter dissatisfaction with elevated gas prices, tariffs, and the ongoing conflict with Iran. These conditions align with historical patterns of midterm losses for the president’s party and have prompted forecasters to project a Democratic national House popular vote advantage in the mid-to-high single digits. Prediction market pricing places the highest probabilities on Democratic margins of 6–12 points while assigning substantial weight to “Other,” reflecting uncertainty over the precise final spread given remaining volatility, redistricting effects, and turnout variables in the final weeks before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$136,074Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent national generic ballot polling averages show Democrats leading Republicans by roughly 7–9 points, a margin that has widened in September amid President Trump’s approval ratings near 38% and voter dissatisfaction with elevated gas prices, tariffs, and the ongoing conflict with Iran. These conditions align with historical patterns of midterm losses for the president’s party and have prompted forecasters to project a Democratic national House popular vote advantage in the mid-to-high single digits. Prediction market pricing places the highest probabilities on Democratic margins of 6–12 points while assigning substantial weight to “Other,” reflecting uncertainty over the precise final spread given remaining volatility, redistricting effects, and turnout variables in the final weeks before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volumen
$136,074Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent national generic ballot polling averages show Democrats leading Republicans by roughly 7–9 points, a margin that has widened in September amid President Trump’s approval ratings near 38% and voter dissatisfaction with elevated gas prices, tariffs, and the ongoing conflict with Iran. These conditions align with historical patterns of midterm losses for the president’s party and have prompted forecasters to project a Democratic national House popular vote advantage in the mid-to-high single digits. Prediction market pricing places the highest probabilities on Democratic margins of 6–12 points while assigning substantial weight to “Other,” reflecting uncertainty over the precise final spread given remaining volatility, redistricting effects, and turnout variables in the final weeks before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Habrá entre 125 millones y 130 millones de votos emitidos en las elecciones de mitad de mandato de la Cámara de Representantes de EE.UU. de 2026?
23%
Sí
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
24%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-01 House election by 50%-55%?
28%
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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