Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent national generic ballot edge of roughly 7–12 points in the weeks before the November 3 election, consistent with the historical midterm penalty against the president’s party. This environment, combined with low Republican presidential approval and voter concerns over economic conditions, underpins trader positioning around modest-to-moderate Democratic popular-vote margins. Redistricting changes that added Republican-leaning seats have narrowed the path to large Democratic gains, while the narrow starting House map keeps outcomes sensitive to turnout and late shifts. The elevated price on “Other” captures residual uncertainty over whether the final margin falls outside listed buckets or whether Republican resilience in battlegrounds alters the national result.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado2026 Parciales: Margen de victoria del voto popular de la Cámara
2026 Parciales: Margen de victoria del voto popular de la Cámara
Demócratas 8-10% 27%
Demócratas 10-12% 22%
Demócratas 6-8% 18%
Demócratas 4-6% 11%
$139,555 Vol.
$139,555 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Demócratas 16%+
1%
Demócratas 14-16%
3%
Demócratas 12-14%
7%
Demócratas 10-12%
22%
Demócratas 8-10%
27%
Demócratas 6-8%
18%
Demócratas 4-6%
11%
Demócratas 2-4%
7%
Demócratas 0-2%
2%
Republicanos 0-2%
3%
Republicanos 2-4%
3%
Republicanos 4-6%
1%
Republicanos 6%+
1%
Demócratas 8-10% 27%
Demócratas 10-12% 22%
Demócratas 6-8% 18%
Demócratas 4-6% 11%
$139,555 Vol.
$139,555 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Demócratas 16%+
$3,786 Vol.
1%
Demócratas 14-16%
$3,548 Vol.
3%
Demócratas 12-14%
$4,873 Vol.
7%
Demócratas 10-12%
$9,185 Vol.
22%
Demócratas 8-10%
$14,518 Vol.
27%
Demócratas 6-8%
$15,896 Vol.
18%
Demócratas 4-6%
$7,080 Vol.
11%
Demócratas 2-4%
$16,407 Vol.
7%
Demócratas 0-2%
$20,082 Vol.
2%
Republicanos 0-2%
$6,001 Vol.
3%
Republicanos 2-4%
$30,429 Vol.
3%
Republicanos 4-6%
$3,768 Vol.
1%
Republicanos 6%+
$3,982 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent national generic ballot edge of roughly 7–12 points in the weeks before the November 3 election, consistent with the historical midterm penalty against the president’s party. This environment, combined with low Republican presidential approval and voter concerns over economic conditions, underpins trader positioning around modest-to-moderate Democratic popular-vote margins. Redistricting changes that added Republican-leaning seats have narrowed the path to large Democratic gains, while the narrow starting House map keeps outcomes sensitive to turnout and late shifts. The elevated price on “Other” captures residual uncertainty over whether the final margin falls outside listed buckets or whether Republican resilience in battlegrounds alters the national result.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$139,555Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent national generic ballot edge of roughly 7–12 points in the weeks before the November 3 election, consistent with the historical midterm penalty against the president’s party. This environment, combined with low Republican presidential approval and voter concerns over economic conditions, underpins trader positioning around modest-to-moderate Democratic popular-vote margins. Redistricting changes that added Republican-leaning seats have narrowed the path to large Democratic gains, while the narrow starting House map keeps outcomes sensitive to turnout and late shifts. The elevated price on “Other” captures residual uncertainty over whether the final margin falls outside listed buckets or whether Republican resilience in battlegrounds alters the national result.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volumen
$139,555Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent national generic ballot edge of roughly 7–12 points in the weeks before the November 3 election, consistent with the historical midterm penalty against the president’s party. This environment, combined with low Republican presidential approval and voter concerns over economic conditions, underpins trader positioning around modest-to-moderate Democratic popular-vote margins. Redistricting changes that added Republican-leaning seats have narrowed the path to large Democratic gains, while the narrow starting House map keeps outcomes sensitive to turnout and late shifts. The elevated price on “Other” captures residual uncertainty over whether the final margin falls outside listed buckets or whether Republican resilience in battlegrounds alters the national result.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Habrá entre 125 millones y 130 millones de votos emitidos en las elecciones de mitad de mandato de la Cámara de Representantes de EE.UU. de 2026?
22%
Sí
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
25%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-01 House election by 50%-55%?
30%
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes