Traders assign a 70.5% probability that the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee will not be a woman, reflecting the current field’s composition in prediction markets. Leading contenders priced highest include Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Pete Buttigieg, with male governors and senators such as Josh Shapiro and J.B. Pritzker also prominent. Gretchen Whitmer has ruled out a run, while Kamala Harris trades at single-digit levels despite some national polling leads, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez registers in the low-to-mid teens. Recent positioning moves, including Newsom’s September 2026 statement that he would not run if Harris enters, have not shifted the market toward female frontrunners. This pricing captures trader consensus on the early dynamics ahead of formal announcements after the 2026 midterms.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
30% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 nov 2028
Sí
30% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 nov 2028
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Traders assign a 70.5% probability that the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee will not be a woman, reflecting the current field’s composition in prediction markets. Leading contenders priced highest include Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Pete Buttigieg, with male governors and senators such as Josh Shapiro and J.B. Pritzker also prominent. Gretchen Whitmer has ruled out a run, while Kamala Harris trades at single-digit levels despite some national polling leads, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez registers in the low-to-mid teens. Recent positioning moves, including Newsom’s September 2026 statement that he would not run if Harris enters, have not shifted the market toward female frontrunners. This pricing captures trader consensus on the early dynamics ahead of formal announcements after the 2026 midterms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Volumen
$4,547Fecha de finalización
8 nov 2028Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Traders assign a 70.5% probability that the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee will not be a woman, reflecting the current field’s composition in prediction markets. Leading contenders priced highest include Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Pete Buttigieg, with male governors and senators such as Josh Shapiro and J.B. Pritzker also prominent. Gretchen Whitmer has ruled out a run, while Kamala Harris trades at single-digit levels despite some national polling leads, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez registers in the low-to-mid teens. Recent positioning moves, including Newsom’s September 2026 statement that he would not run if Harris enters, have not shifted the market toward female frontrunners. This pricing captures trader consensus on the early dynamics ahead of formal announcements after the 2026 midterms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$4,547Fecha de finalización
8 nov 2028Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 70.5% probability that the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee will not be a woman, reflecting the current field’s composition in prediction markets. Leading contenders priced highest include Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Pete Buttigieg, with male governors and senators such as Josh Shapiro and J.B. Pritzker also prominent. Gretchen Whitmer has ruled out a run, while Kamala Harris trades at single-digit levels despite some national polling leads, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez registers in the low-to-mid teens. Recent positioning moves, including Newsom’s September 2026 statement that he would not run if Harris enters, have not shifted the market toward female frontrunners. This pricing captures trader consensus on the early dynamics ahead of formal announcements after the 2026 midterms.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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