Skip to main content

Probabilidades y predicciones de las elecciones intermedias 2026

Actualizado ago 12, 2026 22:00 ET

2026 Elección intermedia Probabilidades y predicciones

00
DÍAS
00
HORAS
00
MINUTOS
00
SEGUNDOS
Operar$100 -> $190
49 REPUBLICANOS51 DEMÓCRATAS
Operar$100 -> $114
191 REPUBLICANOS244 DEMÓCRATAS
Reñido
Inclinado D
Probable D
Seguro D
Sin carrera
Inclinado R
Probable R
Seguro R

Referéndums

principales mercados temáticos
$4M Vol

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

69% de probabilidad de no

+1.0%
Operar
$7.2K Vol

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

96% de probabilidad de no

-1.5%
Operar
$6.2K Vol

Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?

61% de probabilidad de no

-31.0%
Operar

Carreras más importantes

mercados más decisivos
$1M Vol

AK Governor

57% Demócrata

+8%
Operar
$755K Vol

TX Senate

52% Demócrata

+0%
Operar
$1M Vol

ME Senate

69% Demócrata

+0%
Operar

Todas las carreras

583 mercados
Carrera
Estado
Fav
Nivel
Mostrando 25 de 50 mercados

Probabilidades intermedias 2026

California Governor Election WinnerXavier Becerra
93%
Steve Hilton
7%
Maine Senate Election WinnerTroy Jackson (D)
70%
Susan Collins (R)
31%
Alaska Governor Election Winner Tom Begich
56%
Bernadette Wilson
30%
Treg Taylor
6%
David Bronson
3%
Click Bishop
2%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
2%
Nancy Dahlstrom
1%
Bill Walker
1%
Texas Senate Election WinnerJames Talarico (D)
52%
Ken Paxton (R)
48%
Alaska Senate Election WinnerMary Peltola
51%
Dan Sullivan
49%
Michigan Senate Election WinnerAbdul El-Sayed (D)
60%
Mike Rogers (R)
42%
FL-06 Republican Primary WinnerRandy Fine
97%
Alexandra Van Cleef
1%
Aaron Baker
1%
Dan Bilzerian
1%
Charles Gambaro
1%
Iowa Senate Election WinnerAshley Hinson (R)
57%
Josh Turek (D)
44%
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerDavid Crowley (D)
77%
Tom Tiffany (R)
23%
Ohio Governor Election WinnerAmy Acton (D)
53%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)
45%
Montana Senate Election WinnerRepublican
92%
Independent
6%
Georgia Senate Election WinnerJon Ossoff (D)
92%
Mike Collins (R)
8%
New York Governor Election WinnerDemocrat
94%
Republican
6%
FL-09 Republican Primary WinnerBen Butler
48%
Thomas Chalifoux
27%
Dan Green
8%
Jorge Martinez
4%
Minnesota Governor Election WinnerAmy Klobuchar (D)
93%
Lisa Demuth (R)
5%
Iowa Governor Election WinnerRob Sand (D)
72%
Zach Lahn (R)
27%
FL-19 Republican Primary WinnerCatalina Lauf
47%
Jim Schwartzel
40%
Jim Oberweis
15%
Madison Cawthorn
1%
Bob Rommel
1%
FL-23 Democratic Primary WinnerLois Frankel
96%
Victoria Doyle
3%
Nevada Governor Election WinnerJoe Lombardo (R)
63%
Aaron Ford (D)
37%
FL-22 Republican Primary WinnerMichael Carbonara
46%
David Burck
35%
Belinda Keiser
14%
Casey Askar
6%
FL-02 Republican Primary WinnerAustin Rogers
65%
Keith Gross
25%
Evan Power
4%
Jim Norton
3%
FL-21 Democratic Primary WinnerJames Martin
71%
Bernard Taylor
31%
FL-25 Democratic Primary WinnerJared Moskowitz
89%
Oliver Larkin
11%
New Hampshire Senate Election WinnerDemocrat
87%
Republican
14%
Minnesota Senate Election WinnerPeggy Flanagan (D)
93%
Michele Tafoya (R)
9%
FL-20 Democratic Primary WinnerDebbie Wasserman Schultz
89%
Elijah Manley
12%
MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of VictoryBell 16%+
100%
Bell 8–12%
1%
FL-07 Republican Primary WinnerCory Mills
50%
Ryan Elijah
49%
FL-25 Republican Primary WinnerScott Singer
75%
Dan Franzese
14%
George Moraitis
12%
Joseph Kaufman
1%
Maryland Governor Election WinnerDemocrat
96%
Republican
4%
WY-AL Republican Primary WinnerSteve Friess
54%
Chuck Gray
34%
Kevin Christensen
11%
Reid Rasner
3%
Bo Biteman
1%
Frank Chapman
1%
David Giralt
1%
John Romero-Martinez
1%
FL-14 Republican Primary WinnerKevin Steele
62%
Mike Beltran
34%
FL-11 Republican Primary WinnerJoe Strada
67%
Carey Baker
25%
Tim Wilkins
9%
FL-02 Democratic Primary WinnerNic Zateslo
30%
Yen Bailey
28%
Amanda Green
27%
Brice Barnes
8%
New Hampshire Governor Election WinnerRepublican
80%
Democrat
19%
Kansas Governor Election WinnerRepublican
57%
Democrat
39%
MA-01 Democratic Primary WinnerRichard Neal
90%
Jeromie Whalen
11%
FL-04 Democratic Primary WinnerLaShonda "L.J." Holloway
78%
Michael Kirwan
21%
Brit Robinson
2%
FL-06 Democratic Primary WinnerEric Yonce
69%
Ronnie Murchinson-Rivera
31%
Robert Cooper
1%
FL-05 Republican Primary WinnerJohn Rutherford
96%
Mark Kaye
3%
FL-27 Democratic Primary WinnerEliott Rodriguez
89%
Robin Peguero
10%
MA-04 Democratic Primary WinnerJake Auchincloss
91%
Jason Poulos
8%
Kansas Governor Election Margin of VictoryRepublican 0-3%
22%
Republican 12-15%
21%
Democrat 0-3%
20%
Republican 3-6%
14%
Democrat 3-6%
12%
Republican 18%+
10%
Republican 6-9%
7%
Democrat 6%+
6%
Republican 9-12%
5%
Republican 15-18%
3%
Arizona Governor Election Margin of VictoryDemocrat 9-12%
22%
Democrat 6-9%
16%
Democrat 12-15%
14%
Democrat 3-6%
13%
Republican 0-3%
12%
Democrat 15-18%
11%
Democrat 0-3%
10%
Democrat 18%+
9%
Republican 3-6%
4%
Republican 6%+
3%
Wyoming Senate Election Margin of VictoryRepublican 45-50%
33%
Republican 35-40%
17%
Republican 25-30%
12%
Republican 15-20%
10%
Republican 40-45%
8%
Republican 30-35%
8%
Republican 20-25%
8%
Republican 10-15%
7%
Republican 50%+
6%
Republican 0-10%
5%
Democrat Wins
4%
Florida Senate Election Margin of VictoryRepublican 6-9%
20%
Republican 3-6%
17%
Republican 0-3%
16%
Democrat 0-3%
11%
Republican 21%+
9%
Republican 12-15%
9%
Republican 9-12%
9%
Republican 18-21%
7%
Republican 15-18%
7%
Democrat 3%+
4%
Georgia Governor Election Margin of Victory (First Round)Democrat 6-9%
14%
Republican 3-6%
12%
Democrat 0-3%
12%
Democrat 9-12%
12%
Republican 6-9%
11%
Republican 0-3%
11%
Democrat 3-6%
9%
Democrat 12%+
9%
Republican 12%+
5%
Republican 9-12%
4%
New Hampshire Senate Election Margin of VictoryDemocrat 3-6%
20%
Democrat 15-18%
19%
Democrat 0-3%
15%
Democrat 6-9%
15%
Democrat 12-15%
13%
Republican 0-3%
12%
Democrat 9-12%
12%
Republican 6%+
10%
Republican 3-6%
7%
Democrat 18%+
7%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes
32%
Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?Yes
39%

Sobre las elecciones intermedias de EE.UU. de 2026

Las elecciones intermedias de Estados Unidos de 2026 están programadas para el 3 de noviembre de 2026 y determinarán la composición del 120.º Congreso de los Estados Unidos junto con una amplia gama de cargos estatales y locales. Los 435 escaños de la Cámara de Representantes de EE.UU., 35 de los 100 escaños del Senado, 36 gobernaciones en estados de EE.UU. y numerosas carreras legislativas estatales, ejecutivas y locales aparecerán en las boletas a nivel nacional. Estas son las primeras elecciones intermedias nacionales que tienen lugar durante un segundo mandato presidencial no consecutivo d...

Preguntas frecuentes