Recent polling shows several 2026 Senate contests tightening into potential single-digit margins, driven by a Democratic-leaning generic congressional ballot and shifts in key battlegrounds. Races in Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, and Iowa feature the narrowest projected spreads, influenced by candidate matchups, open seats from retirements, and state-specific turnout patterns. Democratic gains appear in recent surveys from Texas and Ohio, while New Hampshire moved to toss-up status amid Republican momentum. With the November 3 general election seven weeks away and mail voting underway in multiple states, late-cycle developments in these competitive districts—along with national economic and approval trends—will likely determine which races finish within five points.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$64,033 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
83%
Alaska
72%
Kansas
70%
Michigan
65%
Iowa
62%
Ohio (Especial)
56%
Nebraska
45%
Maine
39%
New Hampshire
36%
South Carolina
41%
Carolina del Norte
27%
Florida (Especial)
25%
Georgia
20%
Minnesota
16%
Nuevo México
13%
Montana
9%
Virginia
5%
Colorado
4%
$64,033 Vol.
Texas
$7,132 Vol.
83%
Alaska
$2,789 Vol.
72%
Kansas
$556 Vol.
70%
Michigan
$2,743 Vol.
65%
Iowa
$5,657 Vol.
62%
Ohio (Especial)
$3,967 Vol.
56%
Nebraska
$3,719 Vol.
45%
Maine
$1,119 Vol.
39%
New Hampshire
$2,402 Vol.
36%
South Carolina
$109 Vol.
41%
Carolina del Norte
$5,817 Vol.
27%
Florida (Especial)
$2,450 Vol.
25%
Georgia
$2,057 Vol.
20%
Minnesota
$9,915 Vol.
16%
Nuevo México
$6,665 Vol.
13%
Montana
$2,990 Vol.
9%
Virginia
$1,344 Vol.
5%
Colorado
$2,599 Vol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows several 2026 Senate contests tightening into potential single-digit margins, driven by a Democratic-leaning generic congressional ballot and shifts in key battlegrounds. Races in Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, and Iowa feature the narrowest projected spreads, influenced by candidate matchups, open seats from retirements, and state-specific turnout patterns. Democratic gains appear in recent surveys from Texas and Ohio, while New Hampshire moved to toss-up status amid Republican momentum. With the November 3 general election seven weeks away and mail voting underway in multiple states, late-cycle developments in these competitive districts—along with national economic and approval trends—will likely determine which races finish within five points.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$64,033Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows several 2026 Senate contests tightening into potential single-digit margins, driven by a Democratic-leaning generic congressional ballot and shifts in key battlegrounds. Races in Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, and Iowa feature the narrowest projected spreads, influenced by candidate matchups, open seats from retirements, and state-specific turnout patterns. Democratic gains appear in recent surveys from Texas and Ohio, while New Hampshire moved to toss-up status amid Republican momentum. With the November 3 general election seven weeks away and mail voting underway in multiple states, late-cycle developments in these competitive districts—along with national economic and approval trends—will likely determine which races finish within five points.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$64,033Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling shows several 2026 Senate contests tightening into potential single-digit margins, driven by a Democratic-leaning generic congressional ballot and shifts in key battlegrounds. Races in Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, and Iowa feature the narrowest projected spreads, influenced by candidate matchups, open seats from retirements, and state-specific turnout patterns. Democratic gains appear in recent surveys from Texas and Ohio, while New Hampshire moved to toss-up status amid Republican momentum. With the November 3 general election seven weeks away and mail voting underway in multiple states, late-cycle developments in these competitive districts—along with national economic and approval trends—will likely determine which races finish within five points.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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