Mary Peltola maintains a narrow first-choice lead of roughly 2.3 points over incumbent Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s 2026 Senate contest, with 88 percent of ballots counted and no candidate reaching 50 percent under ranked-choice voting. This positioning drives trader consensus toward a 3-6 percent final margin because remaining absentee ballots and second preferences from eliminated minor candidates are expected to consolidate modestly in her favor during tabulation. Ongoing counting through mid-November and the scheduled ranked-choice process around November 18 remain the main variables. A surge of late Republican-leaning ballots or unexpected redistribution patterns could still compress or widen the outcome within or beyond the leading range before certification on November 25.