**PP leads the Spain general election market at 82% implied probability ahead of the November 29 snap vote, while PSOE sits at 17%.** The early election, called by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez after parliament rejected two housing decrees in early October, has crystallized trader expectations around polling trends. Consistent surveys since mid-2026 show the center-right PP holding a 6–8 point lead over PSOE, with Vox support placing the combined right-wing bloc near or above a congressional majority. Recent legal actions by PP against PSOE financing allegations and the short campaign window beginning November 13 have reinforced the perception of momentum for the opposition. PSOE’s coalition partners face fragmentation risks, limiting comeback scenarios in the 54-day electoral period.