President Trump's ongoing term, which began in January 2025 and extends through January 2029, forms the core driver behind the 94.5% implied probability that he will not leave office before 2027. The constitutional threshold for removal—impeachment by the House followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction—remains high, with no recent floor votes, committee actions, or confirmed scandals altering this baseline. November 2026 midterm elections could reshape congressional control and influence legislative priorities, yet they leave the presidential term intact absent extraordinary developments. Trader consensus, reflected in current pricing, aligns with historical patterns where sitting presidents complete their terms barring exceptional events.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Trump saldrá como presidente antes de 2027?
¿Trump saldrá como presidente antes de 2027?
Sí
6% probabilidad
$10,745,359 Vol.
$10,745,359 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
6% probabilidad
$10,745,359 Vol.
$10,745,359 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's ongoing term, which began in January 2025 and extends through January 2029, forms the core driver behind the 94.5% implied probability that he will not leave office before 2027. The constitutional threshold for removal—impeachment by the House followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction—remains high, with no recent floor votes, committee actions, or confirmed scandals altering this baseline. November 2026 midterm elections could reshape congressional control and influence legislative priorities, yet they leave the presidential term intact absent extraordinary developments. Trader consensus, reflected in current pricing, aligns with historical patterns where sitting presidents complete their terms barring exceptional events.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volumen
$10,745,359Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's ongoing term, which began in January 2025 and extends through January 2029, forms the core driver behind the 94.5% implied probability that he will not leave office before 2027. The constitutional threshold for removal—impeachment by the House followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction—remains high, with no recent floor votes, committee actions, or confirmed scandals altering this baseline. November 2026 midterm elections could reshape congressional control and influence legislative priorities, yet they leave the presidential term intact absent extraordinary developments. Trader consensus, reflected in current pricing, aligns with historical patterns where sitting presidents complete their terms barring exceptional events.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$10,745,359Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's ongoing term, which began in January 2025 and extends through January 2029, forms the core driver behind the 94.5% implied probability that he will not leave office before 2027. The constitutional threshold for removal—impeachment by the House followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction—remains high, with no recent floor votes, committee actions, or confirmed scandals altering this baseline. November 2026 midterm elections could reshape congressional control and influence legislative priorities, yet they leave the presidential term intact absent extraordinary developments. Trader consensus, reflected in current pricing, aligns with historical patterns where sitting presidents complete their terms barring exceptional events.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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