President Donald Trump’s second term, which began in January 2025, continues with routine executive actions on trade, immigration enforcement, regulatory rollback, and military priorities as of August 2026. Republican majorities in Congress have blocked impeachment efforts that arose earlier in the year over foreign policy statements, and no bipartisan coalition or 25th Amendment process has gained traction. Recent presidential actions on tariffs, naval rebuilding, and border measures reflect an active administration without signs of resignation, incapacity, or removal proceedings. Traders price the 94.5% “No” outcome on the absence of institutional thresholds or acute crises that could compress the timeline before 2027, consistent with historical patterns where partisan divisions limit removal prospects absent overwhelming evidence or electoral shifts. Midterm outcomes and any late-breaking developments remain the primary variables that could still alter this consensus.