Despite recent calls from over three dozen medical experts declaring President Trump mentally unfit and urging 25th Amendment invocation—stemming from an April 27 Washington gala incident and subsequent opinion pieces—trader consensus reflects an 88.5% implied probability he remains in office through 2026, driven by insurmountable political barriers. Republican majorities in the House and Senate, led by loyalists including Vice President JD Vance, have quashed Democratic impeachment resolutions like H.Res.939 without floor votes or advancement. No official health diagnoses, resignation signals, or cabinet actions have emerged, while Trump's active schedule, including the recent US-China summit preparations, underscores operational stability. Midterm elections in November loom as a potential shift, but historical precedents of failed removal efforts during his prior impeachments reinforce trader confidence absent a major scandal or crisis.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Trump saldrá como presidente antes de 2027?
¿Trump saldrá como presidente antes de 2027?
Sí
$8,331,209 Vol.
$8,331,209 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$8,331,209 Vol.
$8,331,209 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite recent calls from over three dozen medical experts declaring President Trump mentally unfit and urging 25th Amendment invocation—stemming from an April 27 Washington gala incident and subsequent opinion pieces—trader consensus reflects an 88.5% implied probability he remains in office through 2026, driven by insurmountable political barriers. Republican majorities in the House and Senate, led by loyalists including Vice President JD Vance, have quashed Democratic impeachment resolutions like H.Res.939 without floor votes or advancement. No official health diagnoses, resignation signals, or cabinet actions have emerged, while Trump's active schedule, including the recent US-China summit preparations, underscores operational stability. Midterm elections in November loom as a potential shift, but historical precedents of failed removal efforts during his prior impeachments reinforce trader confidence absent a major scandal or crisis.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volumen
$8,331,209Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite recent calls from over three dozen medical experts declaring President Trump mentally unfit and urging 25th Amendment invocation—stemming from an April 27 Washington gala incident and subsequent opinion pieces—trader consensus reflects an 88.5% implied probability he remains in office through 2026, driven by insurmountable political barriers. Republican majorities in the House and Senate, led by loyalists including Vice President JD Vance, have quashed Democratic impeachment resolutions like H.Res.939 without floor votes or advancement. No official health diagnoses, resignation signals, or cabinet actions have emerged, while Trump's active schedule, including the recent US-China summit preparations, underscores operational stability. Midterm elections in November loom as a potential shift, but historical precedents of failed removal efforts during his prior impeachments reinforce trader confidence absent a major scandal or crisis.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$8,331,209Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite recent calls from over three dozen medical experts declaring President Trump mentally unfit and urging 25th Amendment invocation—stemming from an April 27 Washington gala incident and subsequent opinion pieces—trader consensus reflects an 88.5% implied probability he remains in office through 2026, driven by insurmountable political barriers. Republican majorities in the House and Senate, led by loyalists including Vice President JD Vance, have quashed Democratic impeachment resolutions like H.Res.939 without floor votes or advancement. No official health diagnoses, resignation signals, or cabinet actions have emerged, while Trump's active schedule, including the recent US-China summit preparations, underscores operational stability. Midterm elections in November loom as a potential shift, but historical precedents of failed removal efforts during his prior impeachments reinforce trader confidence absent a major scandal or crisis.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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