Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for Brazil’s October 25 presidential runoff, driven by his stronger-than-expected 47.03% finish in the October 4 first round against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 45.16%. Multiple post-first-round polls, including Ipespe, AtlasIntel, and Datafolha, show Flávio ahead by 4–6 points in valid votes for the head-to-head contest, reflecting a momentum shift after the Liberal Party’s broader congressional gains. Lula’s approval ratings remain under pressure amid economic dissatisfaction, while Flávio benefits from right-wing consolidation and family political momentum despite Jair Bolsonaro’s imprisonment. The tight timeline to the runoff leaves limited room for major reversals absent major late developments.