Recent polls from early May 2026, including Quaest (May 8–11) showing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%, alongside Futura and Ideia surveys with Lula leading 38–40% to Bolsonaro's 34–37%, have solidified trader consensus that Lula secures first-round victory while Bolsonaro claims second amid a fragmented opposition field. Tarcísio de Freitas and Romeu Zema poll at 4–6%, splitting right-wing votes and boosting Bolsonaro's relative strength as the primary challenger. A May 13 AtlasIntel/Bloomberg runoff tie underscores the tight race, but first-round fragmentation favors Bolsonaro for the runoff spot, reflected in his dominant 65% implied probability; Lula's low 16% for second stems from his frontrunner status. The October 4 first round looms with undecided voters at 9–15% potentially pivotal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFlávio Bolsonaro 65%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 16%
Renan Santos 5.1%
Michelle Bolsonaro 3.7%
$3,500,318 Vol.
$3,500,318 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
65%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
16%
Renan Santos
5%
Michelle Bolsonaro
4%
Romeu Zema
3%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Camilo Santana
2%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 65%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 16%
Renan Santos 5.1%
Michelle Bolsonaro 3.7%
$3,500,318 Vol.
$3,500,318 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
65%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
16%
Renan Santos
5%
Michelle Bolsonaro
4%
Romeu Zema
3%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Camilo Santana
2%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from early May 2026, including Quaest (May 8–11) showing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%, alongside Futura and Ideia surveys with Lula leading 38–40% to Bolsonaro's 34–37%, have solidified trader consensus that Lula secures first-round victory while Bolsonaro claims second amid a fragmented opposition field. Tarcísio de Freitas and Romeu Zema poll at 4–6%, splitting right-wing votes and boosting Bolsonaro's relative strength as the primary challenger. A May 13 AtlasIntel/Bloomberg runoff tie underscores the tight race, but first-round fragmentation favors Bolsonaro for the runoff spot, reflected in his dominant 65% implied probability; Lula's low 16% for second stems from his frontrunner status. The October 4 first round looms with undecided voters at 9–15% potentially pivotal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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