Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ciro Gomes at 62.5% implied probability to win the Ceará gubernatorial election, reflecting late April polls like Quaest and Veritá showing him leading first-round scenarios with 41-54% against incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT) at 32-40%, while dominating runoffs 46-35%. Ciro's May 11 confirmation of his PSDB candidacy—rejecting a presidential bid—has solidified challenger momentum amid his name recognition as former governor. Elmano trails at 22.5% despite incumbency advantages and high approval, as polls indicate vulnerability in a potential second round. Camilo Santana holds 12.6% pricing despite his recent denial of a PT run, given surveys where he edges Ciro in head-to-heads; lower odds for Eduardo Girão, Roberto Cláudio, and Capitão Wagner align with single-digit polling. Party conventions loom ahead of the October first round.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCeará Governor Election Winner
Ceará Governor Election Winner
Ciro Gomes 63%
Elmano de Freitas 22%
Camilo Santana 12.6%
Roberto Cláudio 2.0%
$53,182 Vol.
$53,182 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Ciro Gomes
63%
Elmano de Freitas
22%
Camilo Santana
13%
Roberto Cláudio
2%
Eduardo Girão
5%
Capitão Wagner
<1%
Ciro Gomes 63%
Elmano de Freitas 22%
Camilo Santana 12.6%
Roberto Cláudio 2.0%
$53,182 Vol.
$53,182 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Ciro Gomes
$35,971 Vol.
63%
Elmano de Freitas
$5,657 Vol.
22%
Camilo Santana
$2,888 Vol.
13%
Roberto Cláudio
$1,785 Vol.
2%
Eduardo Girão
$3,075 Vol.
5%
Capitão Wagner
$3,806 Vol.
<1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ciro Gomes at 62.5% implied probability to win the Ceará gubernatorial election, reflecting late April polls like Quaest and Veritá showing him leading first-round scenarios with 41-54% against incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT) at 32-40%, while dominating runoffs 46-35%. Ciro's May 11 confirmation of his PSDB candidacy—rejecting a presidential bid—has solidified challenger momentum amid his name recognition as former governor. Elmano trails at 22.5% despite incumbency advantages and high approval, as polls indicate vulnerability in a potential second round. Camilo Santana holds 12.6% pricing despite his recent denial of a PT run, given surveys where he edges Ciro in head-to-heads; lower odds for Eduardo Girão, Roberto Cláudio, and Capitão Wagner align with single-digit polling. Party conventions loom ahead of the October first round.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volumen
$53,182Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ciro Gomes at 62.5% implied probability to win the Ceará gubernatorial election, reflecting late April polls like Quaest and Veritá showing him leading first-round scenarios with 41-54% against incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT) at 32-40%, while dominating runoffs 46-35%. Ciro's May 11 confirmation of his PSDB candidacy—rejecting a presidential bid—has solidified challenger momentum amid his name recognition as former governor. Elmano trails at 22.5% despite incumbency advantages and high approval, as polls indicate vulnerability in a potential second round. Camilo Santana holds 12.6% pricing despite his recent denial of a PT run, given surveys where he edges Ciro in head-to-heads; lower odds for Eduardo Girão, Roberto Cláudio, and Capitão Wagner align with single-digit polling. Party conventions loom ahead of the October first round.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$53,182Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ciro Gomes at 62.5% implied probability to win the Ceará gubernatorial election, reflecting late April polls like Quaest and Veritá showing him leading first-round scenarios with 41-54% against incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT) at 32-40%, while dominating runoffs 46-35%. Ciro's May 11 confirmation of his PSDB candidacy—rejecting a presidential bid—has solidified challenger momentum amid his name recognition as former governor. Elmano trails at 22.5% despite incumbency advantages and high approval, as polls indicate vulnerability in a potential second round. Camilo Santana holds 12.6% pricing despite his recent denial of a PT run, given surveys where he edges Ciro in head-to-heads; lower odds for Eduardo Girão, Roberto Cláudio, and Capitão Wagner align with single-digit polling. Party conventions loom ahead of the October first round.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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