Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands trader consensus at 82% implied probability for reelection in the October 4, 2026, contest, driven by sustained high approval ratings—54-65% in late April Quaest, Apex/Futura, and Datafolha polls—and double-digit leads in first-round scenarios against challengers like Fernando Haddad (33% in Paraná and Vox surveys). Recent Genial/Quaest data from April 29 reinforces his edge across matchups, positioning him for a potential outright win without a runoff under Brazil's majoritarian system. Haddad trails at 10% amid Workers' Party concerns over polarization and weak third options like Kim Kataguiri (5%), while França and Hilton lag far behind; upcoming polls and campaign momentum could shift this crowded field.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 9.7%
Kim Kataguiri 5.1%
Erika Hilton 2.2%
$20,425 Vol.
$20,425 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
83%
Fernando Haddad
10%
Kim Kataguiri
5%
Erika Hilton
2%
Márcio França
2%
Tarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 9.7%
Kim Kataguiri 5.1%
Erika Hilton 2.2%
$20,425 Vol.
$20,425 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$10,723 Vol.
83%
Fernando Haddad
$3,045 Vol.
10%
Kim Kataguiri
$1,581 Vol.
5%
Erika Hilton
$2,885 Vol.
2%
Márcio França
$2,190 Vol.
2%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands trader consensus at 82% implied probability for reelection in the October 4, 2026, contest, driven by sustained high approval ratings—54-65% in late April Quaest, Apex/Futura, and Datafolha polls—and double-digit leads in first-round scenarios against challengers like Fernando Haddad (33% in Paraná and Vox surveys). Recent Genial/Quaest data from April 29 reinforces his edge across matchups, positioning him for a potential outright win without a runoff under Brazil's majoritarian system. Haddad trails at 10% amid Workers' Party concerns over polarization and weak third options like Kim Kataguiri (5%), while França and Hilton lag far behind; upcoming polls and campaign momentum could shift this crowded field.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volumen
$20,425Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands trader consensus at 82% implied probability for reelection in the October 4, 2026, contest, driven by sustained high approval ratings—54-65% in late April Quaest, Apex/Futura, and Datafolha polls—and double-digit leads in first-round scenarios against challengers like Fernando Haddad (33% in Paraná and Vox surveys). Recent Genial/Quaest data from April 29 reinforces his edge across matchups, positioning him for a potential outright win without a runoff under Brazil's majoritarian system. Haddad trails at 10% amid Workers' Party concerns over polarization and weak third options like Kim Kataguiri (5%), while França and Hilton lag far behind; upcoming polls and campaign momentum could shift this crowded field.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$20,425Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands trader consensus at 82% implied probability for reelection in the October 4, 2026, contest, driven by sustained high approval ratings—54-65% in late April Quaest, Apex/Futura, and Datafolha polls—and double-digit leads in first-round scenarios against challengers like Fernando Haddad (33% in Paraná and Vox surveys). Recent Genial/Quaest data from April 29 reinforces his edge across matchups, positioning him for a potential outright win without a runoff under Brazil's majoritarian system. Haddad trails at 10% amid Workers' Party concerns over polarization and weak third options like Kim Kataguiri (5%), while França and Hilton lag far behind; upcoming polls and campaign momentum could shift this crowded field.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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