Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking re-election, with recent surveys such as Ideia showing him at 51% in the first round against Fernando Haddad at 34%. This positioning reflects sustained voter support for his administration amid standard state governance metrics. Traders price the outcome at 93.5% for de Freitas, aligning with consistent polling margins that have held through mid-2026. Haddad and minor candidates trail substantially. Late developments including personal health issues, major scandals, sharp economic shifts in the state, or an unexpectedly unified opposition push could still narrow the gap before October voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.0%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$278,966 Vol.
$278,966 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
94%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.0%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$278,966 Vol.
$278,966 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$122,984 Vol.
94%
Fernando Haddad
$46,833 Vol.
4%
Erika Hilton
$22,704 Vol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$75,777 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking re-election, with recent surveys such as Ideia showing him at 51% in the first round against Fernando Haddad at 34%. This positioning reflects sustained voter support for his administration amid standard state governance metrics. Traders price the outcome at 93.5% for de Freitas, aligning with consistent polling margins that have held through mid-2026. Haddad and minor candidates trail substantially. Late developments including personal health issues, major scandals, sharp economic shifts in the state, or an unexpectedly unified opposition push could still narrow the gap before October voting.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volumen
$278,966Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking re-election, with recent surveys such as Ideia showing him at 51% in the first round against Fernando Haddad at 34%. This positioning reflects sustained voter support for his administration amid standard state governance metrics. Traders price the outcome at 93.5% for de Freitas, aligning with consistent polling margins that have held through mid-2026. Haddad and minor candidates trail substantially. Late developments including personal health issues, major scandals, sharp economic shifts in the state, or an unexpectedly unified opposition push could still narrow the gap before October voting.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$278,966Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking re-election, with recent surveys such as Ideia showing him at 51% in the first round against Fernando Haddad at 34%. This positioning reflects sustained voter support for his administration amid standard state governance metrics. Traders price the outcome at 93.5% for de Freitas, aligning with consistent polling margins that have held through mid-2026. Haddad and minor candidates trail substantially. Late developments including personal health issues, major scandals, sharp economic shifts in the state, or an unexpectedly unified opposition push could still narrow the gap before October voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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