Recent polling aggregates show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie or narrow lead for Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, with most surveys placing Lula between 38-44% and Flávio between 34-42%. This closeness, reflected across Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and other late-September releases, underpins trader consensus that any victory will fall under five percentage points. Lula’s incumbency and established voter base provide a modest edge in valid-vote calculations, while Flávio’s consolidation of right-leaning support keeps the alternative narrow-win scenario viable. No decisive late-campaign shifts have altered these dynamics, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns and final undecided voters.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPrimera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria
Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria
Lula da Silva <5% 51%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 28.7%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 12%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 9.7%
$522,566 Vol.
$522,566 Vol.
3 oct 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
12%
Lula da Silva <5%
51%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
10%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
29%
Victoria de Renan Santos
<1%
Victoria de Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Victoria de Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Otro
<1%
Lula da Silva <5% 51%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 28.7%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 12%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 9.7%
$522,566 Vol.
$522,566 Vol.
3 oct 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$21,705 Vol.
1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$49,476 Vol.
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$52,047 Vol.
12%
Lula da Silva <5%
$53,295 Vol.
51%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$28,745 Vol.
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$29,062 Vol.
10%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$35,355 Vol.
29%
Victoria de Renan Santos
$220,225 Vol.
<1%
Victoria de Tarcisio de Freitas
$10,653 Vol.
<1%
Victoria de Ratinho Júnior
$10,076 Vol.
<1%
Otro
$12,026 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie or narrow lead for Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, with most surveys placing Lula between 38-44% and Flávio between 34-42%. This closeness, reflected across Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and other late-September releases, underpins trader consensus that any victory will fall under five percentage points. Lula’s incumbency and established voter base provide a modest edge in valid-vote calculations, while Flávio’s consolidation of right-leaning support keeps the alternative narrow-win scenario viable. No decisive late-campaign shifts have altered these dynamics, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns and final undecided voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$522,566Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie or narrow lead for Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, with most surveys placing Lula between 38-44% and Flávio between 34-42%. This closeness, reflected across Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and other late-September releases, underpins trader consensus that any victory will fall under five percentage points. Lula’s incumbency and established voter base provide a modest edge in valid-vote calculations, while Flávio’s consolidation of right-leaning support keeps the alternative narrow-win scenario viable. No decisive late-campaign shifts have altered these dynamics, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns and final undecided voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$522,566Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling aggregates show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie or narrow lead for Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, with most surveys placing Lula between 38-44% and Flávio between 34-42%. This closeness, reflected across Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and other late-September releases, underpins trader consensus that any victory will fall under five percentage points. Lula’s incumbency and established voter base provide a modest edge in valid-vote calculations, while Flávio’s consolidation of right-leaning support keeps the alternative narrow-win scenario viable. No decisive late-campaign shifts have altered these dynamics, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns and final undecided voters.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Obtendrá Flávio Bolsonaro el 39% o más de los votos válidos en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas de 2026?
88%
Sí
¿Ganará Lula entre el 41% y el 44% de los votos válidos en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas de 2026?
42%
Sí
¿Renan Santos obtendrá entre el 2% y el 4% de los votos válidos en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas de 2026?
42%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes