Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Flávio Bolsonaro in recent first-round polling averages around 40-42% to 28-34%, with other candidates including Renan Santos trailing far behind, consistent with market pricing that clusters heavily on a narrow Lula victory. Persistent polarization between Workers’ Party supporters and right-wing voters, combined with Flávio’s recent association with a banker-linked film funding controversy, has kept the contest close while lifting undecided shares. Economic performance, crime concerns, and Jair Bolsonaro’s legal status continue to shape voter blocs, with the October 4 first round still months away and room for further shifts from campaign events or additional disclosures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10% 32%
Lula da Silva <5% 26%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 18.0%
Lula da Silva 15%+ 8.1%
$262,491 Vol.
$262,491 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
8%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
18%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
32%
Lula da Silva <5%
26%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
7%
Renan Santos Victory
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
4%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 32%
Lula da Silva <5% 26%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 18.0%
Lula da Silva 15%+ 8.1%
$262,491 Vol.
$262,491 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$6,573 Vol.
8%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$7,007 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$9,084 Vol.
32%
Lula da Silva <5%
$13,083 Vol.
26%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$2,726 Vol.
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$2,726 Vol.
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$6,713 Vol.
7%
Renan Santos Victory
$207,990 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$1,886 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$2,137 Vol.
<1%
Other
$2,565 Vol.
4%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Flávio Bolsonaro in recent first-round polling averages around 40-42% to 28-34%, with other candidates including Renan Santos trailing far behind, consistent with market pricing that clusters heavily on a narrow Lula victory. Persistent polarization between Workers’ Party supporters and right-wing voters, combined with Flávio’s recent association with a banker-linked film funding controversy, has kept the contest close while lifting undecided shares. Economic performance, crime concerns, and Jair Bolsonaro’s legal status continue to shape voter blocs, with the October 4 first round still months away and room for further shifts from campaign events or additional disclosures.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$262,491Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Flávio Bolsonaro in recent first-round polling averages around 40-42% to 28-34%, with other candidates including Renan Santos trailing far behind, consistent with market pricing that clusters heavily on a narrow Lula victory. Persistent polarization between Workers’ Party supporters and right-wing voters, combined with Flávio’s recent association with a banker-linked film funding controversy, has kept the contest close while lifting undecided shares. Economic performance, crime concerns, and Jair Bolsonaro’s legal status continue to shape voter blocs, with the October 4 first round still months away and room for further shifts from campaign events or additional disclosures.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$262,491Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Flávio Bolsonaro in recent first-round polling averages around 40-42% to 28-34%, with other candidates including Renan Santos trailing far behind, consistent with market pricing that clusters heavily on a narrow Lula victory. Persistent polarization between Workers’ Party supporters and right-wing voters, combined with Flávio’s recent association with a banker-linked film funding controversy, has kept the contest close while lifting undecided shares. Economic performance, crime concerns, and Jair Bolsonaro’s legal status continue to shape voter blocs, with the October 4 first round still months away and room for further shifts from campaign events or additional disclosures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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