Recent electoral gains and polling momentum for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation have sustained trader interest in further parliamentary switches. Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 defection from the Nationals, followed by David Farley’s May 2026 Farrer by-election victory and Luke Herdegen’s August Secret Harbour win in Western Australia, demonstrated the party’s capacity to attract or retain representatives outside traditional major-party structures. Speculation around figures such as NSW Nationals MP Wes Fang and former Labor MLC Ben Dawkins has kept defection chatter alive into September 2026, while One Nation’s primary vote has reached 24–30% in multiple national polls. These developments, alongside the party’s expanded membership base and state-level candidacies, underpin the current 59% implied probability that at least one additional sitting MP will switch before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
0% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
0% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent electoral gains and polling momentum for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation have sustained trader interest in further parliamentary switches. Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 defection from the Nationals, followed by David Farley’s May 2026 Farrer by-election victory and Luke Herdegen’s August Secret Harbour win in Western Australia, demonstrated the party’s capacity to attract or retain representatives outside traditional major-party structures. Speculation around figures such as NSW Nationals MP Wes Fang and former Labor MLC Ben Dawkins has kept defection chatter alive into September 2026, while One Nation’s primary vote has reached 24–30% in multiple national polls. These developments, alongside the party’s expanded membership base and state-level candidacies, underpin the current 59% implied probability that at least one additional sitting MP will switch before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ET
Volumen
$212Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent electoral gains and polling momentum for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation have sustained trader interest in further parliamentary switches. Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 defection from the Nationals, followed by David Farley’s May 2026 Farrer by-election victory and Luke Herdegen’s August Secret Harbour win in Western Australia, demonstrated the party’s capacity to attract or retain representatives outside traditional major-party structures. Speculation around figures such as NSW Nationals MP Wes Fang and former Labor MLC Ben Dawkins has kept defection chatter alive into September 2026, while One Nation’s primary vote has reached 24–30% in multiple national polls. These developments, alongside the party’s expanded membership base and state-level candidacies, underpin the current 59% implied probability that at least one additional sitting MP will switch before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$212Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent electoral gains and polling momentum for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation have sustained trader interest in further parliamentary switches. Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 defection from the Nationals, followed by David Farley’s May 2026 Farrer by-election victory and Luke Herdegen’s August Secret Harbour win in Western Australia, demonstrated the party’s capacity to attract or retain representatives outside traditional major-party structures. Speculation around figures such as NSW Nationals MP Wes Fang and former Labor MLC Ben Dawkins has kept defection chatter alive into September 2026, while One Nation’s primary vote has reached 24–30% in multiple national polls. These developments, alongside the party’s expanded membership base and state-level candidacies, underpin the current 59% implied probability that at least one additional sitting MP will switch before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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