Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor of Pará, holds the strongest position in the 2026 race due to her recent polling lead and party infrastructure ahead of the October 4 first round. The latest AtlasIntel survey from early September shows her at 48.5% (52% of valid votes) against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 41.7%, a margin that could allow a first-round victory under Brazilian electoral rules. Earlier surveys from Real Time and Quaest indicated tighter contests or technical ties, but Ghassan's advantage has widened with active campaigning, including regional events and coalition support. Traders appear to weigh her incumbency, approval ratings, and the low single-digit support for other registered candidates like Araceli (PSOL) when assessing probabilities. A decisive shift in undecided voters or late campaign developments could still narrow the gap before election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHana Ghassan 57%
Dr. Daniel Santos 39%
Éder Mauro 1.2%
Dirceu Ten Caten <1%
$45,834 Vol.
$45,834 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Hana Ghassan
57%
Dr. Daniel Santos
39%
Éder Mauro
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
<1%
Zequinha Marinho
<1%
Rogério Barra
<1%
Paulo Rocha
<1%
Hana Ghassan 57%
Dr. Daniel Santos 39%
Éder Mauro 1.2%
Dirceu Ten Caten <1%
$45,834 Vol.
$45,834 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Hana Ghassan
$17,038 Vol.
57%
Dr. Daniel Santos
$12,154 Vol.
39%
Éder Mauro
$5,288 Vol.
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
$2,815 Vol.
<1%
Zequinha Marinho
$2,811 Vol.
<1%
Rogério Barra
$2,872 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rocha
$2,855 Vol.
<1%
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor of Pará, holds the strongest position in the 2026 race due to her recent polling lead and party infrastructure ahead of the October 4 first round. The latest AtlasIntel survey from early September shows her at 48.5% (52% of valid votes) against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 41.7%, a margin that could allow a first-round victory under Brazilian electoral rules. Earlier surveys from Real Time and Quaest indicated tighter contests or technical ties, but Ghassan's advantage has widened with active campaigning, including regional events and coalition support. Traders appear to weigh her incumbency, approval ratings, and the low single-digit support for other registered candidates like Araceli (PSOL) when assessing probabilities. A decisive shift in undecided voters or late campaign developments could still narrow the gap before election day.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
Volumen
$45,834Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor of Pará, holds the strongest position in the 2026 race due to her recent polling lead and party infrastructure ahead of the October 4 first round. The latest AtlasIntel survey from early September shows her at 48.5% (52% of valid votes) against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 41.7%, a margin that could allow a first-round victory under Brazilian electoral rules. Earlier surveys from Real Time and Quaest indicated tighter contests or technical ties, but Ghassan's advantage has widened with active campaigning, including regional events and coalition support. Traders appear to weigh her incumbency, approval ratings, and the low single-digit support for other registered candidates like Araceli (PSOL) when assessing probabilities. A decisive shift in undecided voters or late campaign developments could still narrow the gap before election day.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$45,834Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor of Pará, holds the strongest position in the 2026 race due to her recent polling lead and party infrastructure ahead of the October 4 first round. The latest AtlasIntel survey from early September shows her at 48.5% (52% of valid votes) against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 41.7%, a margin that could allow a first-round victory under Brazilian electoral rules. Earlier surveys from Real Time and Quaest indicated tighter contests or technical ties, but Ghassan's advantage has widened with active campaigning, including regional events and coalition support. Traders appear to weigh her incumbency, approval ratings, and the low single-digit support for other registered candidates like Araceli (PSOL) when assessing probabilities. A decisive shift in undecided voters or late campaign developments could still narrow the gap before election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes