Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the current governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation to run for Senate, holds the leading position in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race at 62.5% implied probability. Recent polling from late August and early September, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest surveys, shows Ferraço ahead in first-round scenarios (typically 35-43%) and favored in runoff matchups against main challenger Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos), the former Vitória mayor at 34.5%. Pazolini’s support stems from his municipal record and party coalition, while other registered candidates such as Helder Salomão (PT) register lower single-digit shares. The first-round vote on October 4 and potential runoff on October 25 remain the key resolution triggers, with Ferraço’s incumbency and state management focus providing the primary edge reflected in trader pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRicardo Ferraço 64%
Lorenzo Pazolini 36%
Sergio Vidigal <1%
Arnaldinho Borgo <1%
$40,321 Vol.
$40,321 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Ricardo Ferraço
64%
Lorenzo Pazolini
36%
Sergio Vidigal
<1%
Arnaldinho Borgo
<1%
Euclério Sampaio
<1%
Ricardo Ferraço 64%
Lorenzo Pazolini 36%
Sergio Vidigal <1%
Arnaldinho Borgo <1%
$40,321 Vol.
$40,321 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Ricardo Ferraço
$14,496 Vol.
64%
Lorenzo Pazolini
$13,944 Vol.
36%
Sergio Vidigal
$3,569 Vol.
<1%
Arnaldinho Borgo
$4,885 Vol.
<1%
Euclério Sampaio
$3,428 Vol.
<1%
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the current governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation to run for Senate, holds the leading position in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race at 62.5% implied probability. Recent polling from late August and early September, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest surveys, shows Ferraço ahead in first-round scenarios (typically 35-43%) and favored in runoff matchups against main challenger Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos), the former Vitória mayor at 34.5%. Pazolini’s support stems from his municipal record and party coalition, while other registered candidates such as Helder Salomão (PT) register lower single-digit shares. The first-round vote on October 4 and potential runoff on October 25 remain the key resolution triggers, with Ferraço’s incumbency and state management focus providing the primary edge reflected in trader pricing.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Volumen
$40,321Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the current governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation to run for Senate, holds the leading position in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race at 62.5% implied probability. Recent polling from late August and early September, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest surveys, shows Ferraço ahead in first-round scenarios (typically 35-43%) and favored in runoff matchups against main challenger Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos), the former Vitória mayor at 34.5%. Pazolini’s support stems from his municipal record and party coalition, while other registered candidates such as Helder Salomão (PT) register lower single-digit shares. The first-round vote on October 4 and potential runoff on October 25 remain the key resolution triggers, with Ferraço’s incumbency and state management focus providing the primary edge reflected in trader pricing.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$40,321Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the current governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation to run for Senate, holds the leading position in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race at 62.5% implied probability. Recent polling from late August and early September, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest surveys, shows Ferraço ahead in first-round scenarios (typically 35-43%) and favored in runoff matchups against main challenger Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos), the former Vitória mayor at 34.5%. Pazolini’s support stems from his municipal record and party coalition, while other registered candidates such as Helder Salomão (PT) register lower single-digit shares. The first-round vote on October 4 and potential runoff on October 25 remain the key resolution triggers, with Ferraço’s incumbency and state management focus providing the primary edge reflected in trader pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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