Polymarket's trader consensus prices Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation primarily in the 5.00-5.99% range at a combined 49.2% implied probability, driven by the Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus survey on May 10 lifting the median forecast to 4.91%—its ninth straight weekly rise—after April's IPCA accelerated to 4.39% year-over-year from 4.14% in March, edging above the 4.50% target ceiling. The deadlocked leading bins at 24.6% each highlight razor-thin dynamics: anchoring via Copom's 14.75% Selic rate and cooling monthly prints versus upside from fiscal expansion, services stickiness, and food volatility. Upcoming May IPCA data and June Copom meeting loom as pivotal swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado5,00-5,49% 27.3%
5,50-5,99% 20.0%
4,50-4,99% 17.8%
7,00%+ 8.2%
$57,263 Vol.
$57,263 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<3,00%
<1%
3,00-3,49%
9%
3,50-3,99%
3%
4,00-4,49 %
7%
4,50-4,99%
18%
5,00-5,49%
24%
5,50-5,99%
23%
6,00-6,49%
5%
6,50-6,99%
4%
7,00%+
8%
5,00-5,49% 27.3%
5,50-5,99% 20.0%
4,50-4,99% 17.8%
7,00%+ 8.2%
$57,263 Vol.
$57,263 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<3,00%
$4,305 Vol.
<1%
3,00-3,49%
$4,370 Vol.
9%
3,50-3,99%
$8,965 Vol.
3%
4,00-4,49 %
$7,722 Vol.
7%
4,50-4,99%
$7,022 Vol.
18%
5,00-5,49%
$6,104 Vol.
24%
5,50-5,99%
$5,690 Vol.
23%
6,00-6,49%
$4,670 Vol.
5%
6,50-6,99%
$4,858 Vol.
4%
7,00%+
$3,556 Vol.
8%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlPolymarket's trader consensus prices Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation primarily in the 5.00-5.99% range at a combined 49.2% implied probability, driven by the Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus survey on May 10 lifting the median forecast to 4.91%—its ninth straight weekly rise—after April's IPCA accelerated to 4.39% year-over-year from 4.14% in March, edging above the 4.50% target ceiling. The deadlocked leading bins at 24.6% each highlight razor-thin dynamics: anchoring via Copom's 14.75% Selic rate and cooling monthly prints versus upside from fiscal expansion, services stickiness, and food volatility. Upcoming May IPCA data and June Copom meeting loom as pivotal swing factors.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado abierto: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volumen
$57,263Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlPolymarket's trader consensus prices Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation primarily in the 5.00-5.99% range at a combined 49.2% implied probability, driven by the Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus survey on May 10 lifting the median forecast to 4.91%—its ninth straight weekly rise—after April's IPCA accelerated to 4.39% year-over-year from 4.14% in March, edging above the 4.50% target ceiling. The deadlocked leading bins at 24.6% each highlight razor-thin dynamics: anchoring via Copom's 14.75% Selic rate and cooling monthly prints versus upside from fiscal expansion, services stickiness, and food volatility. Upcoming May IPCA data and June Copom meeting loom as pivotal swing factors.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$57,263Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket's trader consensus prices Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation primarily in the 5.00-5.99% range at a combined 49.2% implied probability, driven by the Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus survey on May 10 lifting the median forecast to 4.91%—its ninth straight weekly rise—after April's IPCA accelerated to 4.39% year-over-year from 4.14% in March, edging above the 4.50% target ceiling. The deadlocked leading bins at 24.6% each highlight razor-thin dynamics: anchoring via Copom's 14.75% Selic rate and cooling monthly prints versus upside from fiscal expansion, services stickiness, and food volatility. Upcoming May IPCA data and June Copom meeting loom as pivotal swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes