Brazil’s 2026 IPCA inflation expectations have shifted higher following President Lula’s October 25 reelection, with the Focus survey median rising to 5.22% as of November 3 amid concerns over fiscal policy and currency weakness. The central bank’s Copom raised its own 2026 projection to 5.6% while holding the Selic rate at 13.75% on November 5, citing upside risks from exchange-rate volatility and above-ceiling twelve-month inflation near 4.62%. Trader positioning on Polymarket reflects this consensus around the 5.00–5.49% band, supported by resilient services prices and a tight labor market, though further data releases and the December Copom meeting could influence the final outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoView resolved

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