South Africa's 2026 annual inflation outlook centers on the SARB's May 2026 forecast of a 4.4% average, driven primarily by the oil price spike above $100 per barrel from geopolitical tensions that lifted June 2026 headline CPI to 5.0% via fuel and transport costs. This has widened the gap from the 3% target, with core measures also firming and producer prices accelerating. Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 4.1-4.7% brackets holding over 50% combined implied probability, aligns closely with the central bank's baseline while incorporating risks from sustained energy pressures and rand volatility. Key upcoming data releases and the September MPC meeting will test whether disinflation resumes toward the lower end of the range or remains elevated.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4,1-4,4% 29.6%
4,4-4,7% 22.1%
3.8-4.1% 13.5%
>5,0% 8.9%
$39,925 Vol.
$39,925 Vol.
19 ene 2027
<2,6%
<1%
2,6-2,9%
<1%
2,9-3,2%
6%
3,2-3,5%
3%
3,5-3,8%
4%
3.8-4.1%
14%
4,1-4,4%
30%
4,4-4,7%
22%
4,7-5,0%
8%
>5,0%
9%
4,1-4,4% 29.6%
4,4-4,7% 22.1%
3.8-4.1% 13.5%
>5,0% 8.9%
$39,925 Vol.
$39,925 Vol.
19 ene 2027
<2,6%
$1,219 Vol.
<1%
2,6-2,9%
$1,854 Vol.
<1%
2,9-3,2%
$1,564 Vol.
6%
3,2-3,5%
$1,245 Vol.
3%
3,5-3,8%
$1,798 Vol.
4%
3.8-4.1%
$3,106 Vol.
14%
4,1-4,4%
$2,590 Vol.
30%
4,4-4,7%
$14,940 Vol.
22%
4,7-5,0%
$3,372 Vol.
8%
>5,0%
$8,236 Vol.
9%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874South Africa's 2026 annual inflation outlook centers on the SARB's May 2026 forecast of a 4.4% average, driven primarily by the oil price spike above $100 per barrel from geopolitical tensions that lifted June 2026 headline CPI to 5.0% via fuel and transport costs. This has widened the gap from the 3% target, with core measures also firming and producer prices accelerating. Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 4.1-4.7% brackets holding over 50% combined implied probability, aligns closely with the central bank's baseline while incorporating risks from sustained energy pressures and rand volatility. Key upcoming data releases and the September MPC meeting will test whether disinflation resumes toward the lower end of the range or remains elevated.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Mercado abierto: Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volumen
$39,925Fecha de finalización
20 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874South Africa's 2026 annual inflation outlook centers on the SARB's May 2026 forecast of a 4.4% average, driven primarily by the oil price spike above $100 per barrel from geopolitical tensions that lifted June 2026 headline CPI to 5.0% via fuel and transport costs. This has widened the gap from the 3% target, with core measures also firming and producer prices accelerating. Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 4.1-4.7% brackets holding over 50% combined implied probability, aligns closely with the central bank's baseline while incorporating risks from sustained energy pressures and rand volatility. Key upcoming data releases and the September MPC meeting will test whether disinflation resumes toward the lower end of the range or remains elevated.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Volumen
$39,925Fecha de finalización
20 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Africa's 2026 annual inflation outlook centers on the SARB's May 2026 forecast of a 4.4% average, driven primarily by the oil price spike above $100 per barrel from geopolitical tensions that lifted June 2026 headline CPI to 5.0% via fuel and transport costs. This has widened the gap from the 3% target, with core measures also firming and producer prices accelerating. Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 4.1-4.7% brackets holding over 50% combined implied probability, aligns closely with the central bank's baseline while incorporating risks from sustained energy pressures and rand volatility. Key upcoming data releases and the September MPC meeting will test whether disinflation resumes toward the lower end of the range or remains elevated.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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