Traders assign a 55.5% implied probability to a 25 basis point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting, reflecting recent inflation data remaining above the 2% target alongside a still-resilient labor market that has tempered expectations for earlier easing. The 39.5% odds on no change capture market caution over mixed growth signals and the risk of over-tightening. These probabilities align closely with the latest CPI and employment releases, which have reinforced a higher-for-longer policy stance versus the Fed’s dot plot projections. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and November meetings plus fresh nonfarm payrolls and inflation prints that could shift the balance between a hike and hold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado25 bps increase 56%
Sin cambios 40%
50+ bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,464 Vol.
$687,464 Vol.
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
Sin cambios
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
Sin cambios 40%
50+ bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,464 Vol.
$687,464 Vol.
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
$102,808 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$155,944 Vol.
3%
Sin cambios
$136,748 Vol.
40%
25 bps increase
$187,162 Vol.
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,802 Vol.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 55.5% implied probability to a 25 basis point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting, reflecting recent inflation data remaining above the 2% target alongside a still-resilient labor market that has tempered expectations for earlier easing. The 39.5% odds on no change capture market caution over mixed growth signals and the risk of over-tightening. These probabilities align closely with the latest CPI and employment releases, which have reinforced a higher-for-longer policy stance versus the Fed’s dot plot projections. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and November meetings plus fresh nonfarm payrolls and inflation prints that could shift the balance between a hike and hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volumen
$687,464Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 55.5% implied probability to a 25 basis point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting, reflecting recent inflation data remaining above the 2% target alongside a still-resilient labor market that has tempered expectations for earlier easing. The 39.5% odds on no change capture market caution over mixed growth signals and the risk of over-tightening. These probabilities align closely with the latest CPI and employment releases, which have reinforced a higher-for-longer policy stance versus the Fed’s dot plot projections. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and November meetings plus fresh nonfarm payrolls and inflation prints that could shift the balance between a hike and hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$687,464Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 55.5% implied probability to a 25 basis point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting, reflecting recent inflation data remaining above the 2% target alongside a still-resilient labor market that has tempered expectations for earlier easing. The 39.5% odds on no change capture market caution over mixed growth signals and the risk of over-tightening. These probabilities align closely with the latest CPI and employment releases, which have reinforced a higher-for-longer policy stance versus the Fed’s dot plot projections. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and November meetings plus fresh nonfarm payrolls and inflation prints that could shift the balance between a hike and hold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿No habrá ningún cambio en las tasas de interés de la Fed después de la reunión de octubre de 2026?
62%
Sí
¿La Reserva Federal aumentará las tasas de interés en 25 pb después de la reunión de septiembre de 2026?
79%
Sí
¿Será el límite superior de la tasa objetivo de los fondos federales del 4,0% al final de 2026?
41%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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