Elevated inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year and a divided FOMC have anchored trader sentiment around repeated holds, with the July 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote underscoring hawkish dissent favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Market-implied odds reflect this path, pricing limited room for cuts through October while assigning substantial weight to “other” sequences that could include September or October tightening if CPI and labor data fail to moderate. Recent communications from Chair Warsh and rising Treasury yields have reinforced expectations of policy patience amid sticky price pressures. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting and intervening CPI releases remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOther 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 30%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$657,789 Vol.
$657,789 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
30%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
63%
Other 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 30%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$657,789 Vol.
$657,789 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$220,903 Vol.
30%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$50,978 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$31,752 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$23,264 Vol.
1%
Other
$287,403 Vol.
63%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year and a divided FOMC have anchored trader sentiment around repeated holds, with the July 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote underscoring hawkish dissent favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Market-implied odds reflect this path, pricing limited room for cuts through October while assigning substantial weight to “other” sequences that could include September or October tightening if CPI and labor data fail to moderate. Recent communications from Chair Warsh and rising Treasury yields have reinforced expectations of policy patience amid sticky price pressures. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting and intervening CPI releases remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volumen
$657,789Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year and a divided FOMC have anchored trader sentiment around repeated holds, with the July 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote underscoring hawkish dissent favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Market-implied odds reflect this path, pricing limited room for cuts through October while assigning substantial weight to “other” sequences that could include September or October tightening if CPI and labor data fail to moderate. Recent communications from Chair Warsh and rising Treasury yields have reinforced expectations of policy patience amid sticky price pressures. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting and intervening CPI releases remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$657,789Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year and a divided FOMC have anchored trader sentiment around repeated holds, with the July 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote underscoring hawkish dissent favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Market-implied odds reflect this path, pricing limited room for cuts through October while assigning substantial weight to “other” sequences that could include September or October tightening if CPI and labor data fail to moderate. Recent communications from Chair Warsh and rising Treasury yields have reinforced expectations of policy patience amid sticky price pressures. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting and intervening CPI releases remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes