Recent cooling in U.S. inflation, with June 2026 headline CPI falling 0.4% month-over-month to a 3.5% annual rate from May’s 4.2%, has anchored expectations for the October FOMC meeting near the current 3.50–3.75% fed funds target range. A stable labor market, marked by a 4.2% unemployment rate and modest June payroll gains, alongside the July hold and three hawkish dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, supports the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change while lifting the chance of a modest hike to 22.5%. Elevated energy prices and Middle East uncertainty continue to complicate the path to the 2% goal, keeping rate-cut odds below 7% and reinforcing trader focus on incoming CPI and employment data ahead of the September and October decisions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Decisión de la Fed en octubre?
¿Decisión de la Fed en octubre?
Sin cambio 69%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 23%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 6%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 2.5%
$473,261 Vol.
$473,261 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
6%
Sin cambio
69%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
23%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
3%
Sin cambio 69%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 23%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 6%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 2.5%
$473,261 Vol.
$473,261 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
$101,089 Vol.
1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$118,848 Vol.
6%
Sin cambio
$102,849 Vol.
69%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$107,852 Vol.
23%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$42,643 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent cooling in U.S. inflation, with June 2026 headline CPI falling 0.4% month-over-month to a 3.5% annual rate from May’s 4.2%, has anchored expectations for the October FOMC meeting near the current 3.50–3.75% fed funds target range. A stable labor market, marked by a 4.2% unemployment rate and modest June payroll gains, alongside the July hold and three hawkish dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, supports the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change while lifting the chance of a modest hike to 22.5%. Elevated energy prices and Middle East uncertainty continue to complicate the path to the 2% goal, keeping rate-cut odds below 7% and reinforcing trader focus on incoming CPI and employment data ahead of the September and October decisions.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volumen
$473,261Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent cooling in U.S. inflation, with June 2026 headline CPI falling 0.4% month-over-month to a 3.5% annual rate from May’s 4.2%, has anchored expectations for the October FOMC meeting near the current 3.50–3.75% fed funds target range. A stable labor market, marked by a 4.2% unemployment rate and modest June payroll gains, alongside the July hold and three hawkish dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, supports the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change while lifting the chance of a modest hike to 22.5%. Elevated energy prices and Middle East uncertainty continue to complicate the path to the 2% goal, keeping rate-cut odds below 7% and reinforcing trader focus on incoming CPI and employment data ahead of the September and October decisions.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$473,261Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cooling in U.S. inflation, with June 2026 headline CPI falling 0.4% month-over-month to a 3.5% annual rate from May’s 4.2%, has anchored expectations for the October FOMC meeting near the current 3.50–3.75% fed funds target range. A stable labor market, marked by a 4.2% unemployment rate and modest June payroll gains, alongside the July hold and three hawkish dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, supports the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change while lifting the chance of a modest hike to 22.5%. Elevated energy prices and Middle East uncertainty continue to complicate the path to the 2% goal, keeping rate-cut odds below 7% and reinforcing trader focus on incoming CPI and employment data ahead of the September and October decisions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿No habrá ningún cambio en las tasas de interés de la Fed después de la reunión de septiembre de 2026?
49%
Sí
¿No habrá cambios en las tasas de interés de la Fed después de la reunión de diciembre de 2026?
59%
Sí
¿Será el límite superior de la tasa objetivo de los fondos federales del 4,0% al final de 2026?
36%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes