**Elevated but easing inflation pressures and the Federal Reserve’s recent policy hold underpin the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.** With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the July decision and June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year, trader consensus favors a pause amid solid economic activity and mixed labor-market signals. The 22.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike reflect lingering hawkish views from some FOMC participants and futures pricing that continues to embed one to two rate increases by year-end, while the low probabilities assigned to cuts underscore the absence of clear disinflation momentum. The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming July CPI release on August 12 remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Decisión de la Fed en octubre?
¿Decisión de la Fed en octubre?
Sin cambio 69%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 23%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 6%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 2.5%
$450,753 Vol.
$450,753 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
6%
Sin cambio
69%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
23%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
3%
Sin cambio 69%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 23%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 6%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 2.5%
$450,753 Vol.
$450,753 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
$99,924 Vol.
1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$99,708 Vol.
6%
Sin cambio
$102,363 Vol.
69%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$107,565 Vol.
23%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$41,192 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Elevated but easing inflation pressures and the Federal Reserve’s recent policy hold underpin the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.** With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the July decision and June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year, trader consensus favors a pause amid solid economic activity and mixed labor-market signals. The 22.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike reflect lingering hawkish views from some FOMC participants and futures pricing that continues to embed one to two rate increases by year-end, while the low probabilities assigned to cuts underscore the absence of clear disinflation momentum. The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming July CPI release on August 12 remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volumen
$450,753Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Elevated but easing inflation pressures and the Federal Reserve’s recent policy hold underpin the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.** With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the July decision and June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year, trader consensus favors a pause amid solid economic activity and mixed labor-market signals. The 22.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike reflect lingering hawkish views from some FOMC participants and futures pricing that continues to embed one to two rate increases by year-end, while the low probabilities assigned to cuts underscore the absence of clear disinflation momentum. The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming July CPI release on August 12 remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$450,753Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated but easing inflation pressures and the Federal Reserve’s recent policy hold underpin the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.** With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the July decision and June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year, trader consensus favors a pause amid solid economic activity and mixed labor-market signals. The 22.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike reflect lingering hawkish views from some FOMC participants and futures pricing that continues to embed one to two rate increases by year-end, while the low probabilities assigned to cuts underscore the absence of clear disinflation momentum. The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming July CPI release on August 12 remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿No habrá ningún cambio en las tasas de interés de la Fed después de la reunión de septiembre de 2026?
50%
Sí
¿No habrá cambios en las tasas de interés de la Fed después de la reunión de diciembre de 2026?
59%
Sí
¿Será el límite superior de la tasa objetivo de los fondos federales del 4,0% al final de 2026?
34%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes