The Bank of Mexico’s decision to hold its policy rate at 6.50% at the August 6, 2026 meeting, following the conclusion of its easing cycle in May, underpins the 82% market-implied probability of no change in November. Headline inflation eased to 3.37% year-over-year in June—the lowest since late 2020—with core inflation at 4.03%, remaining inside the 2–4% target band amid softer non-core prices and limited second-round effects. Policymakers have cited balanced risks, downside growth pressures, and the need for further data before resuming cuts, aligning trader consensus with stability ahead of the September 24 and November 5 decisions. A sharper inflation rebound or peso depreciation could still introduce volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 82%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 5.5%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 5%
Incremento de 25 puntos básicos 5.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 nov 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
4%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
5%
Sin cambio
82%
Incremento de 25 puntos básicos
5%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
6%
Sin cambio 82%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 5.5%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 5%
Incremento de 25 puntos básicos 5.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 nov 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$73 Vol.
4%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$73 Vol.
5%
Sin cambio
$2,046 Vol.
82%
Incremento de 25 puntos básicos
$118 Vol.
5%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$63 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Bank of Mexico’s decision to hold its policy rate at 6.50% at the August 6, 2026 meeting, following the conclusion of its easing cycle in May, underpins the 82% market-implied probability of no change in November. Headline inflation eased to 3.37% year-over-year in June—the lowest since late 2020—with core inflation at 4.03%, remaining inside the 2–4% target band amid softer non-core prices and limited second-round effects. Policymakers have cited balanced risks, downside growth pressures, and the need for further data before resuming cuts, aligning trader consensus with stability ahead of the September 24 and November 5 decisions. A sharper inflation rebound or peso depreciation could still introduce volatility.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volumen
$2,372Fecha de finalización
5 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Bank of Mexico’s decision to hold its policy rate at 6.50% at the August 6, 2026 meeting, following the conclusion of its easing cycle in May, underpins the 82% market-implied probability of no change in November. Headline inflation eased to 3.37% year-over-year in June—the lowest since late 2020—with core inflation at 4.03%, remaining inside the 2–4% target band amid softer non-core prices and limited second-round effects. Policymakers have cited balanced risks, downside growth pressures, and the need for further data before resuming cuts, aligning trader consensus with stability ahead of the September 24 and November 5 decisions. A sharper inflation rebound or peso depreciation could still introduce volatility.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$2,372Fecha de finalización
5 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Mexico’s decision to hold its policy rate at 6.50% at the August 6, 2026 meeting, following the conclusion of its easing cycle in May, underpins the 82% market-implied probability of no change in November. Headline inflation eased to 3.37% year-over-year in June—the lowest since late 2020—with core inflation at 4.03%, remaining inside the 2–4% target band amid softer non-core prices and limited second-round effects. Policymakers have cited balanced risks, downside growth pressures, and the need for further data before resuming cuts, aligning trader consensus with stability ahead of the September 24 and November 5 decisions. A sharper inflation rebound or peso depreciation could still introduce volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Sin cambios en las tasas de interés del Banco de México después de la reunión de septiembre de 2026?
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Sí
¿El Banco de Brasil no hará ningún cambio en el objetivo para la tasa Selic en la reunión de noviembre?
51%
Sí
¿El Banco de Canadá no hará ningún cambio en la tasa objetivo para la tasa de interés a un día en el anuncio de tasas de interés de octubre?
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes