**Trader sentiment on the Bank of Mexico’s September 2026 policy decision reflects closely balanced risks around the current 6.50% target rate, with market-implied odds clustered near 45–50% across no change, ±25 bps moves, and larger shifts.** Banxico cut 25 bps in May—the final step in its easing cycle that began in 2024—citing Q1 economic contraction, wider slack, and inflation easing to 4.45% headline and 4.26% core. The board’s forward guidance explicitly signaled that holding steady would likely be appropriate amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties, with convergence to the 3% target still projected for Q2 2027. Headline inflation has since declined further to 3.94% in May 2026 (within the 2–4% tolerance band), supported by energy subsidies, though core measures remain elevated and services inflation sticky. Key differentiating factors include the pace of core disinflation versus growth outcomes: weaker activity could reopen scope for additional easing, while any reacceleration in prices or MXN pressure tied to the U.S. policy path could favor a hike or prolonged hold. Upcoming June and July inflation prints, Q2 GDP, and the June 25 and August 6 meetings will shape the data-dependent path. The split board votes in recent decisions underscore internal caution, leaving September pricing sensitive to whether incoming releases confirm sustained moderation or renewed pressures.