**Trader consensus heavily favors no change at the Bank of England’s September 17, 2026 meeting, with market-implied odds at 90.5% for holding the Bank Rate steady at its current 3.75% level.** This positioning reflects the MPC’s July decision to maintain rates on a 6-3 vote, alongside the latest inflation reading of 2.6% for June 2026 (down from 2.8% in May). The BoE’s July Monetary Policy Report projects a temporary rise in CPI toward 3.2% in Q4 due to energy price volatility from the Middle East conflict, but views this as transitory and expects underlying disinflation to continue. Recent communications emphasize that current policy settings are appropriate to return inflation to the 2% target over the medium term, with the committee monitoring labor market and services price data closely. SONIA futures and economist surveys have priced in a flat path near term, consistent with the strong hold probability on Polymarket. Realistic scenarios that could challenge this include a sharper-than-expected July CPI print (due August 19) or further escalation in energy costs that alters the BoE’s inflation trajectory, potentially increasing the odds of a 25 basis point hike. Conversely, significantly weaker growth or labor data could reopen cut discussions, though near-term risks currently tilt toward stability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Decisión del Banco de Inglaterra en septiembre?
¿Decisión del Banco de Inglaterra en septiembre?
Sin cambios 91%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 9.8%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos <1%
$136,922 Vol.
$136,922 Vol.
17 sep 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambios
91%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
10%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambios 91%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 9.8%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos <1%
$136,922 Vol.
$136,922 Vol.
17 sep 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$10,102 Vol.
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$12,713 Vol.
<1%
Sin cambios
$53,501 Vol.
91%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$47,459 Vol.
10%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$13,147 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors no change at the Bank of England’s September 17, 2026 meeting, with market-implied odds at 90.5% for holding the Bank Rate steady at its current 3.75% level.** This positioning reflects the MPC’s July decision to maintain rates on a 6-3 vote, alongside the latest inflation reading of 2.6% for June 2026 (down from 2.8% in May). The BoE’s July Monetary Policy Report projects a temporary rise in CPI toward 3.2% in Q4 due to energy price volatility from the Middle East conflict, but views this as transitory and expects underlying disinflation to continue.
Recent communications emphasize that current policy settings are appropriate to return inflation to the 2% target over the medium term, with the committee monitoring labor market and services price data closely. SONIA futures and economist surveys have priced in a flat path near term, consistent with the strong hold probability on Polymarket.
Realistic scenarios that could challenge this include a sharper-than-expected July CPI print (due August 19) or further escalation in energy costs that alters the BoE’s inflation trajectory, potentially increasing the odds of a 25 basis point hike. Conversely, significantly weaker growth or labor data could reopen cut discussions, though near-term risks currently tilt toward stability.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ET
Volumen
$136,922Fecha de finalización
17 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors no change at the Bank of England’s September 17, 2026 meeting, with market-implied odds at 90.5% for holding the Bank Rate steady at its current 3.75% level.** This positioning reflects the MPC’s July decision to maintain rates on a 6-3 vote, alongside the latest inflation reading of 2.6% for June 2026 (down from 2.8% in May). The BoE’s July Monetary Policy Report projects a temporary rise in CPI toward 3.2% in Q4 due to energy price volatility from the Middle East conflict, but views this as transitory and expects underlying disinflation to continue.
Recent communications emphasize that current policy settings are appropriate to return inflation to the 2% target over the medium term, with the committee monitoring labor market and services price data closely. SONIA futures and economist surveys have priced in a flat path near term, consistent with the strong hold probability on Polymarket.
Realistic scenarios that could challenge this include a sharper-than-expected July CPI print (due August 19) or further escalation in energy costs that alters the BoE’s inflation trajectory, potentially increasing the odds of a 25 basis point hike. Conversely, significantly weaker growth or labor data could reopen cut discussions, though near-term risks currently tilt toward stability.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$136,922Fecha de finalización
17 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors no change at the Bank of England’s September 17, 2026 meeting, with market-implied odds at 90.5% for holding the Bank Rate steady at its current 3.75% level.** This positioning reflects the MPC’s July decision to maintain rates on a 6-3 vote, alongside the latest inflation reading of 2.6% for June 2026 (down from 2.8% in May). The BoE’s July Monetary Policy Report projects a temporary rise in CPI toward 3.2% in Q4 due to energy price volatility from the Middle East conflict, but views this as transitory and expects underlying disinflation to continue. Recent communications emphasize that current policy settings are appropriate to return inflation to the 2% target over the medium term, with the committee monitoring labor market and services price data closely. SONIA futures and economist surveys have priced in a flat path near term, consistent with the strong hold probability on Polymarket. Realistic scenarios that could challenge this include a sharper-than-expected July CPI print (due August 19) or further escalation in energy costs that alters the BoE’s inflation trajectory, potentially increasing the odds of a 25 basis point hike. Conversely, significantly weaker growth or labor data could reopen cut discussions, though near-term risks currently tilt toward stability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes