Trader sentiment on 2026 Fed rate hikes reflects cooling June 2026 CPI inflation at 3.5% year-over-year, down from 4.2% in May, alongside the June FOMC dot plot's median projection of a 3.75-4.00% federal funds rate by year-end. This implies one 25 basis point hike from the current 3.5-3.75% range, with nine of 18 participants penciling in at least one increase. Market-implied odds favor zero or one hike as the base case given moderating price pressures and labor market data, though new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability has kept a hawkish tilt in play. The next CPI release on August 12 could shift probabilities ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 45%
1 (25 bps) 33%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3 (75 puntos básicos) 3.5%
$135,746 Vol.
$135,746 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0 (0 bps)
45%
1 (25 bps)
33%
2 (50 bps)
12%
3 (75 puntos básicos)
3%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 45%
1 (25 bps) 33%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3 (75 puntos básicos) 3.5%
$135,746 Vol.
$135,746 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0 (0 bps)
$59,237 Vol.
45%
1 (25 bps)
$19,218 Vol.
33%
2 (50 bps)
$32,529 Vol.
12%
3 (75 puntos básicos)
$13,128 Vol.
3%
4 (100 bps)
$5,396 Vol.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$6,237 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment on 2026 Fed rate hikes reflects cooling June 2026 CPI inflation at 3.5% year-over-year, down from 4.2% in May, alongside the June FOMC dot plot's median projection of a 3.75-4.00% federal funds rate by year-end. This implies one 25 basis point hike from the current 3.5-3.75% range, with nine of 18 participants penciling in at least one increase. Market-implied odds favor zero or one hike as the base case given moderating price pressures and labor market data, though new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability has kept a hawkish tilt in play. The next CPI release on August 12 could shift probabilities ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Mercado abierto: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volumen
$135,746Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment on 2026 Fed rate hikes reflects cooling June 2026 CPI inflation at 3.5% year-over-year, down from 4.2% in May, alongside the June FOMC dot plot's median projection of a 3.75-4.00% federal funds rate by year-end. This implies one 25 basis point hike from the current 3.5-3.75% range, with nine of 18 participants penciling in at least one increase. Market-implied odds favor zero or one hike as the base case given moderating price pressures and labor market data, though new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability has kept a hawkish tilt in play. The next CPI release on August 12 could shift probabilities ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$135,746Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on 2026 Fed rate hikes reflects cooling June 2026 CPI inflation at 3.5% year-over-year, down from 4.2% in May, alongside the June FOMC dot plot's median projection of a 3.75-4.00% federal funds rate by year-end. This implies one 25 basis point hike from the current 3.5-3.75% range, with nine of 18 participants penciling in at least one increase. Market-implied odds favor zero or one hike as the base case given moderating price pressures and labor market data, though new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability has kept a hawkish tilt in play. The next CPI release on August 12 could shift probabilities ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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