Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year alongside a tight labor market at 4.1% unemployment continues to anchor trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's 3.50-3.75% policy rate, creating the narrow 54.5% implied probability against any 2026 hike. Hawkish signals from the new chair and FOMC participants—coupled with oil-price pressures from geopolitical tensions—have lifted market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end, while moderating core price trends and a divided committee support the case for holding steady. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases will likely serve as key swing factors that could shift the closely balanced consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
46% probabilidad
$7,503,869 Vol.
$7,503,869 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
46% probabilidad
$7,503,869 Vol.
$7,503,869 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year alongside a tight labor market at 4.1% unemployment continues to anchor trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's 3.50-3.75% policy rate, creating the narrow 54.5% implied probability against any 2026 hike. Hawkish signals from the new chair and FOMC participants—coupled with oil-price pressures from geopolitical tensions—have lifted market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end, while moderating core price trends and a divided committee support the case for holding steady. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases will likely serve as key swing factors that could shift the closely balanced consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$7,503,869Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year alongside a tight labor market at 4.1% unemployment continues to anchor trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's 3.50-3.75% policy rate, creating the narrow 54.5% implied probability against any 2026 hike. Hawkish signals from the new chair and FOMC participants—coupled with oil-price pressures from geopolitical tensions—have lifted market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end, while moderating core price trends and a divided committee support the case for holding steady. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases will likely serve as key swing factors that could shift the closely balanced consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,503,869Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year alongside a tight labor market at 4.1% unemployment continues to anchor trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's 3.50-3.75% policy rate, creating the narrow 54.5% implied probability against any 2026 hike. Hawkish signals from the new chair and FOMC participants—coupled with oil-price pressures from geopolitical tensions—have lifted market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end, while moderating core price trends and a divided committee support the case for holding steady. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases will likely serve as key swing factors that could shift the closely balanced consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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