Recent hot inflation readings, including elevated core PCE and PPI prints amid rising energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, have lifted market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point Fed hike in 2026 to around 31.5%. Despite these pressures, the FOMC has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through its April meeting, with the March dot plot still projecting a median path of one cut by year-end and limited support for tightening. Resilient labor market conditions and the Fed’s emphasis on incoming data have anchored trader consensus at a 68.5% probability of no hike, though the June FOMC meeting and next CPI/PCE releases remain key swing factors that could shift the balance if inflation persists above target.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$1,101,010 Vol.
$1,101,010 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
$1,101,010 Vol.
$1,101,010 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hot inflation readings, including elevated core PCE and PPI prints amid rising energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, have lifted market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point Fed hike in 2026 to around 31.5%. Despite these pressures, the FOMC has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through its April meeting, with the March dot plot still projecting a median path of one cut by year-end and limited support for tightening. Resilient labor market conditions and the Fed’s emphasis on incoming data have anchored trader consensus at a 68.5% probability of no hike, though the June FOMC meeting and next CPI/PCE releases remain key swing factors that could shift the balance if inflation persists above target.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,101,010Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hot inflation readings, including elevated core PCE and PPI prints amid rising energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, have lifted market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point Fed hike in 2026 to around 31.5%. Despite these pressures, the FOMC has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through its April meeting, with the March dot plot still projecting a median path of one cut by year-end and limited support for tightening. Resilient labor market conditions and the Fed’s emphasis on incoming data have anchored trader consensus at a 68.5% probability of no hike, though the June FOMC meeting and next CPI/PCE releases remain key swing factors that could shift the balance if inflation persists above target.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,101,010Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hot inflation readings, including elevated core PCE and PPI prints amid rising energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, have lifted market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point Fed hike in 2026 to around 31.5%. Despite these pressures, the FOMC has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through its April meeting, with the March dot plot still projecting a median path of one cut by year-end and limited support for tightening. Resilient labor market conditions and the Fed’s emphasis on incoming data have anchored trader consensus at a 68.5% probability of no hike, though the June FOMC meeting and next CPI/PCE releases remain key swing factors that could shift the balance if inflation persists above target.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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