Recent inflation readings and mixed labor market signals have kept the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 finely balanced near 50 percent, with the latest CPI data tempering earlier expectations of near-term tightening. Persistent price pressures from energy costs and a resilient economy have supported the case for at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end, consistent with some FOMC participants' dot-plot projections, while softer employment figures and moderating core measures have reinforced trader views that policy may remain on hold at the current 3.50-3.75 percent target range. Market-implied probabilities reflect this tug-of-war between inflation risks and growth concerns ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming data releases.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
48% probabilidad
$7,493,069 Vol.
$7,493,069 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
48% probabilidad
$7,493,069 Vol.
$7,493,069 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation readings and mixed labor market signals have kept the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 finely balanced near 50 percent, with the latest CPI data tempering earlier expectations of near-term tightening. Persistent price pressures from energy costs and a resilient economy have supported the case for at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end, consistent with some FOMC participants' dot-plot projections, while softer employment figures and moderating core measures have reinforced trader views that policy may remain on hold at the current 3.50-3.75 percent target range. Market-implied probabilities reflect this tug-of-war between inflation risks and growth concerns ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming data releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$7,493,069Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation readings and mixed labor market signals have kept the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 finely balanced near 50 percent, with the latest CPI data tempering earlier expectations of near-term tightening. Persistent price pressures from energy costs and a resilient economy have supported the case for at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end, consistent with some FOMC participants' dot-plot projections, while softer employment figures and moderating core measures have reinforced trader views that policy may remain on hold at the current 3.50-3.75 percent target range. Market-implied probabilities reflect this tug-of-war between inflation risks and growth concerns ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming data releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,493,069Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation readings and mixed labor market signals have kept the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 finely balanced near 50 percent, with the latest CPI data tempering earlier expectations of near-term tightening. Persistent price pressures from energy costs and a resilient economy have supported the case for at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end, consistent with some FOMC participants' dot-plot projections, while softer employment figures and moderating core measures have reinforced trader views that policy may remain on hold at the current 3.50-3.75 percent target range. Market-implied probabilities reflect this tug-of-war between inflation risks and growth concerns ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming data releases.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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