Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 97.2% implied probability for FOMC decisions in March through June, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast hold on the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% amid reaccelerating inflation and resilient labor conditions. The March 18 and April 29 meetings already delivered pauses, with an 8-4 dissent in April underscoring internal caution. Fresh catalysts include April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by Iran war-related energy shocks, alongside nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs and unemployment steady at 4.3%. CME FedWatch echoes this with 97–98% odds for a June hold. Realistic challenges would require sharp downside surprises in May CPI or payrolls, signaling urgent disinflation or labor softening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPausar–pausar–pausar 97.2%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 1.8%
Otro 1.4%
$1,068,524 Vol.
$1,068,524 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
97%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
2%
Otro
1%
Pausar–pausar–pausar 97.2%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 1.8%
Otro 1.4%
$1,068,524 Vol.
$1,068,524 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
$55,698 Vol.
97%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
$27,054 Vol.
2%
Otro
$240,436 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly back a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 97.2% implied probability for FOMC decisions in March through June, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast hold on the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% amid reaccelerating inflation and resilient labor conditions. The March 18 and April 29 meetings already delivered pauses, with an 8-4 dissent in April underscoring internal caution. Fresh catalysts include April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by Iran war-related energy shocks, alongside nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs and unemployment steady at 4.3%. CME FedWatch echoes this with 97–98% odds for a June hold. Realistic challenges would require sharp downside surprises in May CPI or payrolls, signaling urgent disinflation or labor softening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,068,524Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly back a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 97.2% implied probability for FOMC decisions in March through June, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast hold on the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% amid reaccelerating inflation and resilient labor conditions. The March 18 and April 29 meetings already delivered pauses, with an 8-4 dissent in April underscoring internal caution. Fresh catalysts include April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by Iran war-related energy shocks, alongside nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs and unemployment steady at 4.3%. CME FedWatch echoes this with 97–98% odds for a June hold. Realistic challenges would require sharp downside surprises in May CPI or payrolls, signaling urgent disinflation or labor softening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$1,068,524Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 97.2% implied probability for FOMC decisions in March through June, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast hold on the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% amid reaccelerating inflation and resilient labor conditions. The March 18 and April 29 meetings already delivered pauses, with an 8-4 dissent in April underscoring internal caution. Fresh catalysts include April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by Iran war-related energy shocks, alongside nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs and unemployment steady at 4.3%. CME FedWatch echoes this with 97–98% odds for a June hold. Realistic challenges would require sharp downside surprises in May CPI or payrolls, signaling urgent disinflation or labor softening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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