Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 93%, reflecting aggregated capital bets on the Federal Reserve maintaining its 3.5%–3.75% federal funds target through the June 16–17 and July 28–29 FOMC meetings, following April's hold. This positioning stems from hotter-than-expected April data—CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year, PPI surging 6% amid Middle East energy tensions, and nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs—signaling persistent inflation pressures and labor market resilience despite the Fed's note of low average job gains. The April statement's data-dependent stance and internal 8–4 dissent underscore caution. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI (due June 10) or payrolls (June 6), potentially reviving cut expectations if growth falters.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 6.3%
Other 3.9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.0%
$48,694 Vol.
$48,694 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
6%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
4%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 6.3%
Other 3.9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.0%
$48,694 Vol.
$48,694 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,306 Vol.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,636 Vol.
6%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,567 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,605 Vol.
1%
Other
$1,595 Vol.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 93%, reflecting aggregated capital bets on the Federal Reserve maintaining its 3.5%–3.75% federal funds target through the June 16–17 and July 28–29 FOMC meetings, following April's hold. This positioning stems from hotter-than-expected April data—CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year, PPI surging 6% amid Middle East energy tensions, and nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs—signaling persistent inflation pressures and labor market resilience despite the Fed's note of low average job gains. The April statement's data-dependent stance and internal 8–4 dissent underscore caution. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI (due June 10) or payrolls (June 6), potentially reviving cut expectations if growth falters.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volumen
$48,694Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 93%, reflecting aggregated capital bets on the Federal Reserve maintaining its 3.5%–3.75% federal funds target through the June 16–17 and July 28–29 FOMC meetings, following April's hold. This positioning stems from hotter-than-expected April data—CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year, PPI surging 6% amid Middle East energy tensions, and nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs—signaling persistent inflation pressures and labor market resilience despite the Fed's note of low average job gains. The April statement's data-dependent stance and internal 8–4 dissent underscore caution. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI (due June 10) or payrolls (June 6), potentially reviving cut expectations if growth falters.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$48,694Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 93%, reflecting aggregated capital bets on the Federal Reserve maintaining its 3.5%–3.75% federal funds target through the June 16–17 and July 28–29 FOMC meetings, following April's hold. This positioning stems from hotter-than-expected April data—CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year, PPI surging 6% amid Middle East energy tensions, and nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs—signaling persistent inflation pressures and labor market resilience despite the Fed's note of low average job gains. The April statement's data-dependent stance and internal 8–4 dissent underscore caution. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI (due June 10) or payrolls (June 6), potentially reviving cut expectations if growth falters.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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